Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Tuesday night.
Kaapo Kakko Over 0.5 Points: +115 Sports Interaction
It’s been an ugly first half of the season for the Seattle Kraken, who enter tonight’s matchup versus the Columbus Blue Jackets in the midst of a 2-7-1 run of play in which they have scored just 2.30 goals for per game.
On Tuesday’s episode of the Puck Portfolio I outlined why this matchup provides a good get-right spot for the Kraken, and why they looked like a good bet in this game at -105. Sharper bettors seem to be in agreement, as Seattle is now priced at -125 to win this game.
While there might not be much value left on the Kraken to win this game, there does still look to be value backing Kakko in a matchup where the Kraken should be able to break out offensively.
It made sense for Kraken GM Ron Francis to bet on the upside of Kakko given his team’s desperate need for improved offensive play.
Kakko has spent the majority of the last five games skating on the Kraken’s top line alongside Jaden Schwartz and Matty Beniers, and is also getting usage on the top power-play unit. He has averaged 17:16 of time on ice in those matchups, and put up four points.
In 68.6 minutes together at even strength, Kakko, Schwartz and Beniers hold a 66.7% expected goal share, which is the best mark of any Kraken offensive unit to spend over 50 minutes together by a wide margin. They have been effective where it counts, scoring 4.37 goals per 60 with a plus-2 goal differential.
The Blue Jackets have allowed 3.61 goals against per game this season, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL this season. They will be without top center Sean Monahan in this matchup, who suffered a wrist injury on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. Not only has Monahan been highly productive, he leads a top line which has been excellent defensively, and also plays on the Blue Jackets’ first PK unit.
Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 Points, Anytime Goalscorer -140/+230 Sports Interaction
With Jonathan Drouin and Valeri Nichushkin sidelined, Lehkonen was reunited with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on the Avalanche’s top line for yesterday’s matchup in Chicago. While Lehkonen failed to score or record a point, he had plenty of scoring chances with five shots on goal and seven attempts. He doubled the expected goal output of any other Avs skater with 0.63 individual expected goals.
In a whopping 17:50 of time on ice together at even strength, MacKinnon, Lehkonen, and Rantanen outshot the Blackhawks 12-2 and generated 25 attempts to 11.
While the Wild provide a tougher matchup than the Blackhawks, they will be missing several key players in this matchup, including each of their top three blue-liners, which should make generating offense easier for the Avs’ top line.
The Wild will be without Jonas Brodin, who is the team’s best shutdown defender. Brock Faber was also injured versus the Blues on Tuesday, and captain Jared Spurgeon will also remain out of the lineup. Kirill Kaprizov will also be sidelined which obviously hurts the Wild’s offensive upside, but it also hurts defensively as Kaprizov has been highly effective in his own zone this season.
You could play it safe and confirm that Lehkonen will remain on the top line in pre-game warmups, but there is a possibility that money comes in on the Avalanche ahead of this matchup as the market reacts to just how bad the Wild’s injury situation is, which would reduce the price.
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