Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Friday night.

Erik Karlsson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +110 Sports Interaction

Karlsson continues to pour a ton of shots on target, and in a favorable matchup with the Buffalo Sabres, it’s surprising that the price for over 2.5 shots on goal remains at +110, considering it’s recent hit rate and the amount of attempts.

I outlined this bet on January 3rd, when Karlsson was facing off against the Florida Panthers, and it was priced at +110 in that matchup. Since that point, Kris Letang has returned to the lineup, but Letang’s return has not hurt Karlsson’s shot volume or ice time.

Karlsson has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of the last 10 games. He’s averaged close to 23 minutes of ice time in that span, and has averaged 6.3 shot attempts per game. He’s gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 52.17% of games this season, so there is a pretty large sample suggesting +110 is a good price in any matchup.

The Sabres have allowed 28.88 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games, which is the ninth-highest mark in the league throughout that sample of play.

Matt Grzelcyk has taken over Karlsson’s role on the top power-play unit, but that was the case in Tuesday’s game and Karlsson still had three shots on target and seven attempts.

At +110, we are getting a good price to back one of the league’s most offensive-minded defenders to continue firing away in a matchup where the Penguins should be able to generate a higher than average amount of chances.

St. Louis Blues to Make Playoffs: +525 Sports Interaction

The race for the second Western Conference Wild Card spot is shaping up to be one of the softest in recent memory, and the chances that the Blues are able to take advantage and ultimately steal a playoff berth as a result seem to be highly underrated by oddsmakers.

The Blues are 13-8-3 since appointing Jim Montgomery as head coach, and hold the league’s fifth-best expected goal share of 54.32%. In the same span, the Calgary Flames are 9-10-4 with a 47.9% expected goal share, and the Vancouver Canucks are 9-9-7 with a 45.36% expected goal share.

There is an argument to be made that a now-healthy Canucks side could start to turn things around, but that notion looks to be overvalued by the fact that they are still priced at -160 to make the playoffs, and it seems that the Canucks continue to be overvalued because of their highly successful 2023-24 campaign. The Canucks rank dead last in shots on goal per-60 since December 1st, and hold a -17 goal differential in that span.

Perhaps J.T. Miller is able to regain his form, or net a solid return via trade. Maybe Elias Pettersson starts to play like the elite center he has been at times in his career. Those issues being cleared up still might not make enough of a difference for a Canucks side which currently has one better than average NHL defender to start finding better results, especially if Thatcher Demko continues to struggle the way he has so far this season since returning from a significant injury.

The Flames, meanwhile, have slowly been coming down to earth since their excellent start to the season, and it seems pretty clear that the Blues are now playing better hockey. It’s especially easy to make that case as the Blues just earned two critical regulation wins over the Flames this week, cutting the Flames’ lead in the standings to a single point.

There is something to be said for the Utah Hockey Club as well, who at full-health could arguably be the best of the bunch. With leading goal-scorer Dylan Guenther and Sean Durzi both set to be sidelined a while longer though, it’a pretty tough to imagine them going on the kind of run needed to close the gap in the standings.

The Blues have played two more games than the Flames and Canucks, respectively, so they are a little further back than the current point totals suggest. Still, the chances they can close that gap with 36 games left to play looks far better than the current price of +525 suggests, and I believe there is a lot of value backing the Blues to sneak in.

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network app!