<p>Big game player. Ice in the veins. Loves the pressure. Clutch.</p>



<p>Call them whatever you like, some athletes consistently rise to the occasion when the games matter most. Setting reputations aside, who are the league’s true post-season standouts by the numbers?</p>



<p>We’re now familiar with <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/era-adjusted-playoff-stats-a-new-post-season-tool-to-compare-generations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">era adjusted playoff stats</a> — post-season performance scaled to the NHL’s annual playoff scoring rates. Hockey fans know that: 1. Scoring levels shift every year; and 2. Goals are typically harder to come by in the spring when you eliminate the weakest teams. Era adjusted playoff stats allow us to cut through this noise and fairly measure playoff productivity.</p>



<p>Last week, we identified <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/falling-short-whose-production-drops-most-in-the-playoffs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">playoff underperformers</a>, uncovering many decorated and talented players with a surprising decline in post-season output. This week, it’s positive vibes only. We’re searching for <strong>elite players who find an even higher gear in the playoffs</strong>.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="143"></div>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-trend">The Trend</h2>



<p><em>Note: All regular season and playoff statistics are through June 2023</em>.</p>



<p>The chart below plots every forward with 40 or more career playoff games since expansion. The dotted black line cutting across the middle represents identical point production in the regular season and playoffs. After adjusting for scoring environment, Connor McDavid, for example, scores 1.54 points per game in the season and 1.55 points-per-game in the playoffs. His output is essentially the same. As a result, McDavid sits right on the line.</p>



<p>Forwards who are more productive in the <em>playoffs</em> sit above the line (Mikko Rantanen), and those more productive in the <em>regular season</em> are below it (Artemi Panarin).</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="784" height="598" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28.png" alt="" class="wp-image-155631" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28.png 784w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-300x229.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-768x586.png 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-150x114.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-600x458.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-696x531.png 696w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-28-80x60.png 80w" sizes="(max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>But what you likely notice is that most forwards hang pretty close to the line.</p>



<p><strong>What does this tell us?</strong></p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="132"></div>



<p>Despite the polarizing narratives casting everyone as either clutch or chokers, <em>most</em> players perform as we expect regardless of the time of year. Sure, we get outliers. But the visual reveals that playoff output strongly resembles regular season output with proper context.</p>



<p>Great players often seem to thrive in key moments because — wait for it — they’re great players. In November. In February. Or in May. They rightfully get a lot of ice time. They play on the power play. They play in close games. They play late in games when a goal is needed.</p>



<p>We’re presenting the stars that separate themselves in the playoffs from their already high standards.</p>



<p>Enjoy.</p>



<p></p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-forwards">Forwards 📈</h2>



<p><em>Minimum 0.7 era adjusted points per game in regular season career</em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Active Forwards</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 45 career playoff game</em>s</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="131"></div>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>#</strong> <strong>8. Jake Guentzel (+15%)<br># 7. Nazem Kadri (+16%)<br># 6. Ryan O’Reilly (+18%)</strong></h4>



<p></p>



<p>The list begins with three fearless forwards, each with one Cup ring in their safe. After scoring 13 goals as a rookie in Pittsburgh’s 2017 title defense, Guentzel continued to thrive as Sidney Crosby’s go-to winger. His run as a rental in Carolina has now ended after 9 points in 11 games.</p>



<p>As for Kadri, his playoff history over a five-year period was… something else:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>2018, Toronto: four-game suspension</li>



<li>2019, Toronto: five-game suspension</li>



<li>2020, Colorado: 18 points in 15 games</li>



<li>2021, Colorado: eight-game suspension</li>



<li>2022, Colorado: 15 points in 16 games, wins the Stanley Cup<br> </li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>Of course, like most Maple Leafs in the last 57 years, Kadri was unimpressive in the playoffs in blue and white. But as required in NHL by-laws, he respected the Toronto Curse and thrived offensively upon leaving.</p>



<p>At #6, O’Reilly, the 2019 Smythe winner, a.k.a. ‘The Factor,’ cranks up his output 18% in the playoffs.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong># 5. Nathan MacKinnon (+21%)<br># 4. Gabriel Landeskog (+21%)<br># 3. Mikko Rantanen (+21%)</strong></h4>



<p></p>



<p>Whoa. Three long-time Avalanche core members each reach another stratosphere. These are three very different types of players with varying skill sets and ceilings, yet each has been exceptional in Colorado’s current dangerous playoff window. Perhaps most impressively, MacKinnon leaps from a career adjusted 91-point pace to a 110-point pace in the post-season. What a player.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="179"></div>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong># 2. Logan Couture (+22%)</strong></h4>



<p></p>



<p>Both Couture and our #1 playoff overperformer are without a Stanley Cup. At age 34, after playing just six games this year, and having the umm, pleasure, of being the Sharks’ captain, it’s not looking good. In 2016, Couture led the playoffs in assists (20) and points (30), but lost to the Penguins in the finals. In 2019, Couture led the playoffs in goals (14) in only three rounds. It reinforces that championships are won as a team. Being outstanding in the playoffs doesn’t guarantee anything. Just ask Logan.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>#</strong> <strong>1. Leon Draisaitl (+37%)</strong></h4>



<p></p>



<p>One man <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/after-700-nhl-games-leon-draisaitl-is-already-a-hall-of-famer" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stands alone</a> at the top. First, to clap back at the critics, yes, Draisaitl has often been stapled to McDavid in the playoffs. Yes, he’s a go-to shooter on an all-time great power play. Yes, he’s at the peak of his powers and his playoff per-game rates will decline courtesy of Father Time. And yes, all but four of his 59 career playoff games have been in the first two rounds. But check out his company…</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="169"></div>



<p>Incredibly, at 1.63 adjusted points per game, Draisaitl trails only Wayne Frickin’ Gretzky (1.71) since expansion. Mario Lemieux (1.59) is looking <em>up</em> at him. He leads McDavid by eight goals and five points in the same number of playoffs games. The boost the German center finds in the post-season is sublime. He goes from a career adjusted 98-point pace to a torrid 134-point pace. Even as the Oilers’ depth and goaltending send chills of another potential lost year, he’s got 21 points through 10 games. What more can this guy do?</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="685" height="420" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22.png" alt="" class="wp-image-155301" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22.png 685w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22-300x184.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22-150x92.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-22-600x368.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 685px) 100vw, 685px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Forwards Since Expansion</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 60 career playoff games</em></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="681" height="708" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png" alt="" class="wp-image-155302" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png 681w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23-289x300.png 289w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23-150x156.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23-300x312.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23-600x624.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>A lot of the most celebrated playoff performers still thrive under an era adjusted lens.</p>



<p>Shoutout to the greatest overachieving playoff forward ever, <strong>Daniel Briere</strong>. The current Flyers’ GM played in five conference finals, lost in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals despite leading the playoffs in points (30), tied for the 2012 playoff goal lead (8) in just two rounds(!), yet never took home the biggest prize. Six-time Cup winner and ESPN analyst <strong>Mark Messier</strong>‘s storied credentials are legit — a 24% jump in the post-season. You heard it here, kids — crushing Lay’s Chips in a leather jacket brings playoff success.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="200"></div>



<p>The top 25 is peppered with nine Hall of Famers. Some sympathy goes out to four of them — <strong>Gilbert Perreault</strong>, <strong>Darryl Sittler</strong>, <strong>Bernie Federko</strong>, and <strong>Jarome Iginla</strong> — each of whom retired without a Cup despite an 11% increase in playoff production.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-defensemen">Defensemen 📈</h2>



<p><em>Minimum 0.4 era adjusted points per game in regular season career</em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Active Defensemen</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 45 career playoff games</em></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="695" height="415" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png" alt="" class="wp-image-155303" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png 695w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24-300x179.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24-150x90.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24-600x358.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 695px) 100vw, 695px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>If karma has any influence on playoff puck luck, Lady Byng winner <strong>Jaccob Slavin</strong> as the #1 active overperforming blueliner and Jacob Trouba as last week’s #1 underperformer is poetic. But it’s the Rangers who advanced last night. Each of the top five are sans Cup, however, though Dallas’ <strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong> has his eyes set on his first real soon. <strong>Morgan Rielly</strong> at #2 on the list is fascinating — he’s chipped in offensively his entire gut-wrenching playoff career.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="139"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Defensemen Since Expansion</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 60 career playoff games</em></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="682" height="613" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png" alt="" class="wp-image-155304" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png 682w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25-300x270.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25-150x135.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25-600x539.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 682px) 100vw, 682px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>Half of the top 20 overperforming defensemen since expansion have never lifted the Cup. <strong>Jason Woolley</strong>, a finalist with Florida (1996) and Buffalo (1999) is a shocker at #1. The 1994 Smythe winner, <strong>Brian Leetch</strong>, scoring at an era adjusted 91-point pace from the blueline is otherworldly. Force of nature <strong>Chris Pronger</strong> remarkably led three different teams to the finals in his 30s — Edmonton, Anaheim, and Philadelphia. Lastly, three-time Cup winners in Chicago, <strong>Duncan Keith</strong> (+20%) and <strong>Brent Seabrook</strong> (+19%) found another offensive gear in the spring.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-notables">Notables</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Fernando Pisani</strong> (+63%) — his 33 playoff games were below the cutoff</li>



<li><strong>Max Talbot</strong> (+58%) — his 0.32 career adjusted points-per-game were below the cutoff</li>



<li><strong>Wayne Gretzky</strong> (+7%)</li>



<li><strong>Cale Makar</strong> (+7%)</li>



<li><strong>Jonathan Toews</strong> (+6%)</li>



<li><strong>Justin ‘Mr. Game 7’ Williams</strong> (+2%)</li>



<li><strong>Bobby Orr</strong> (No change)</li>



<li><strong>Steve Yzerman</strong> (-2%)</li>



<li><strong>Mario Lemieux</strong> (-5%)</li>



<li><strong>Patrick Kane</strong> (-6%)</li>



<li><strong>Sidney Crosby</strong> (-7%)</li>



<li><strong>Jaromir Jagr</strong> (-7%)</li>



<li><strong>Alex Ovechkin</strong> (-11%)<br></li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.dailyfaceoff.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2024%2F04%2F727x404_bFIX.png&amp;w=2048&amp;q=75" alt=""></figure>



<p></p>



<p></p>



<p>Hey, hockey heads! Get ready for&nbsp;<a href="https://games.dailyfaceoff.com/games/playoff-parlay-challenge" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Daily Faceoff Playoff Parlay Challenge</a>! Each game day, answer four playoff prediction questions like who will win the first game, will points be over or under or what will be the highest-scoring period? Daily winners snag gift cards, while each round’s champs pocket cash! Play now at&nbsp;<a href="http://games.dailyfaceoff.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">games.dailyfaceoff.com</a>&nbsp;and prove your puck prowess! It’s fast, it’s fun, and it’s all about hockey! Let’s go</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="7" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="164"></div>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<p><em>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X; Data from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference.com</a></em>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nhl.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NHL.com</a></p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recently by Paul Pidutti</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/falling-short-whose-production-drops-most-in-the-playoffs/">Falling Short: Whose Production Drops Most in the Playoffs?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/era-adjusted-playoff-stats-a-new-post-season-tool-to-compare-generations/">Era Adjusted Playoff Stats: A New Post-Season Tool to Compare Generations</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/10-visuals-that-define-an-electric-2023-24-season">10 Visuals That Define an Electric 2023-24 Season</a></li>



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<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-art-ross-trophy-race-whos-actually-been-the-nhls-best-scorer">The Art Ross Trophy Race: Who’s (Actually) Been the NHL’s Best Scorer?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/50-goals-matthews-hyman-reinhart-and-what-it-means-in-todays-nhl">50 Goals: Matthews, Hyman, Reinhart and what it means in today’s NHL</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/connor-bedards-rookie-season-where-it-ranks-and-what-it-means">Connor Bedard’s Rookie Season: Where it Ranks and What it Means</a></li>
</ul>


Leon Draisaitl for FanDuel promo & DraftKings promo 6.13