<p>One day this week, <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations">Pittsburgh Penguins </a>captain Sidney Crosby will become the 10th player in NHL history to reach 1,600 points.</p>



<p>At first, that sounds about right. Crosby has made up for career-threatening injuries in his mid-20s by remaining healthy, consistent, and productive into his 20th season. His legacy is safe, his achievements well-documented. #87 will retire as one of the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/after-two-decades-of-dominance-where-does-sidney-crosby-rank-among-the-nhls-greatest-players" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">best players to ever live</a> — how high he ranks on the list is in the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/is-sidney-crosby-on-hockeys-mount-rushmore" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">eye of the beholder</a>. </p>



<p>But the next question shifts to how the preeminent scorer of his time took two decades to reach a milestone that <em>nine</em> others have already hit.</p>



<p><strong>We’re exploring a lost generation</strong> <strong>today.</strong> A 20-year window of scoring talent that’s rarely seen at the top of NHL leaderboards, short of major milestones, and with legacies that undersell their brilliance.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="140"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The 1,600-Point Club</h2>



<p>We’ll start with the 10 players to score 1,600 points. Here’s a timeline by debut season, beginning with the godfather of perpetual excellence, Gordie Howe.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="524" height="711" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41.png" alt="" class="wp-image-178532" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41.png 524w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41-221x300.png 221w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41-150x204.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-41-300x407.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 524px) 100vw, 524px"></a></figure>



<p></p>



<p>The two major gaps here are remarkable, helping tell the story of the NHL’s scoring environment.</p>



<p><strong>Howe debuts</strong>… the schedule grows from 60 to 70 to 80-plus games… offense explodes… <strong>eight members of the 1,600-point club debut between 1971 and 1990</strong>… scoring craters… <strong>Crosby debuts</strong>.</p>



<p>The NHL has been around for 107 years. Yet, <em>half</em> its 1,600-point players — Gretzky, Messier, Francis, Yzerman, Lemieux — debuted in a five-year window. It’s the same with defensemen. All five of the top point-scoring defensemen in league history — Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, Al MacInnis, Phil Housley, and Larry Murphy — were rookies between 1979 and 1982.</p>



<p>It’s a hardly a coincidence. And it’s not their fault for scoring a lot. But the group arrived amidst a <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/adjusted-scoring-how-it-works-and-why-it-matters" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">preposterous imbalance</a> of offense vs. defense, before the NHL had globalized, and during rapid expansion. A time of endless power plays and save percentages in the .870s and .880s.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="179"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Lost Generation of Scorers (1996-2015)</h2>



<p>Alex Ovechkin should join Crosby this season, needing a 50-point year to become the 11th player to 1,600 points. Ovechkin has missed only 51 games in 20 seasons, a 97% attendance figure. An inconceivable rate for a man who played so hard at his peak.</p>



<p>Yet, despite the advances in fitness, nutrition, sports medicine, and a gradual decline in dangerous hits — which collectively should extend careers — not one player that debuted in the 15-year window between Jagr and Crosby/Ovechkin scored 1,600 points.</p>



<p>Not Teemu Selanne in 21 seasons.<br>Not Joe Thornton in 24 seasons.<br>Not Jarome Iginla in 20 seasons.</p>



<p>Evgeni Malkin, who debuted in 2006, just passed 1,300 points. He’s 38 years old. Patrick Kane, the 2007-08 Calder Trophy winner, is more than 300 points shy and nearing his 36th birthday. Neither has a realistic path to the 1,600-point milestone.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="141"></div>



<p>Had these players performed the same relative to the league 10, 20, or 30 years earlier, they’d be remembered much differently. That’s the reality of how scarce goals were from the mid-1990s through the mid-2010s. Crosby, who has scored at will since he was a teenager, and Ovechkin, a herculean talent that rarely missed a game, each needed 20 years to hit a mark that seven guys born 12 years apart achieved.</p>



<p>But Crosby and Ovechkin don’t need more praise. Both are pursuing <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/10-visuals-that-define-an-electric-2023-24-season" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Gretzky records</a>. They’ve been so great they’ve overcome the seismic scoring disadvantages of their time — low-offense climate, pandemics, lockouts. It’s that <em>next</em> tier of superstars that have been greatly overshadowed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Disappearing 500-Goal Scorer</h2>



<p>Consider the 500-goal club. There are <a href="https://records.nhl.com/records/milestones/500-goal-career" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">47 members in NHL history</a>, broken down by decade of debut below.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="132"></div>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="856" height="534" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48.png" alt="" class="wp-image-178688" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48.png 856w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48-300x187.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48-768x479.png 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48-150x94.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48-600x374.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-48-696x434.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 856px) 100vw, 856px"></a></figure>



<p></p>



<p>To date, there are only <em>three</em> players who debuted in the decade of 2000-2009 with 500 career goals. Malkin needs one goal and will be the fourth. We’re going to assume that Patrick Kane and John Tavares get there, needing 29 and 43 goals, respectively.</p>



<p>But as Bob Cole would say “Surely… that’s gotta be it!”</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Corey Perry (430 goals) doesn’t have 70 more left in him.</li>



<li>Anze Kopitar (422 goals), at age 37, is a stretch having averaged 24 goals the last three seasons.</li>



<li>Phil Kessel (413 goals) is now playing professional poker, so we too should know when to fold’em.</li>



<li>Brad Marchand (401 goals) would need a lot to go right at his age and injury history.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>So, after an average of 12 players in the three previous decades, the 2000-2009 rookie crop will yield, at most, six 500-goal scorers. This was once a milestone so routine that 14 players scored #500 in an eight-season span.</p>



<p>In even a <em>neutral</em> scoring climate, let alone a favorable one, Joe Pavelski (535 <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/adjusted_stats.html#:~:text=The%20era%20adjustment%20is%20found%20by%20dividing%203%20(our%20base,3358)%20*%2060%20%3D%201.95." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">era adjusted</a> goals), Jeff Carter (508), and Eric Staal (507) would have made nine members from the 2000s. In an era that didn’t suppress offense, Rick Nash, Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Parise, Perry, Kopitar, Marchand, and Jamie Benn may have reconfigured their retirement plans with 500 goals in plain sight.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="160"></div>



<p>Instead, we’re left with only Ovechkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin, and probably Kane and Tavares. The pre-and-post-lockout crop of superstars is largely shut out from what was long a reachable milestone.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Factor</h2>



<p>Inflation can be a nasty word. Every developed country experienced a severe case from the disruption of supply chains after the pandemic. Hockey stats aren’t immune, either.</p>



<p>To illustrate the impact of scoring climate on career stat lines across generations, we’re going to use a stat I created called Inflation Factor. In short, a player’s <strong>Inflation Factor</strong> is a simple calculation, expressing their career point totals as a percentage of their career <em>era adjusted</em> point totals.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>If a player’s Inflation Factor is 100</strong>: their career was played in a <em>neutral</em> scoring climate.</li>



<li><strong>If a player’s Inflation Factor is below 100:</strong> their career was played in an <em><strong>unfavorable</strong></em> scoring climate.<br>Example: Erik Karlsson’s Inflation Factor is 92 — Karlsson’s totals are <strong><em>deflated</em></strong> by 8%.</li>



<li><strong>If a player’s Inflation Factor is above 100:</strong> their career was played in a <em><strong>favorable</strong></em> scoring climate.<br>Example: Wayne Gretzky’s Inflation Factor is 115 — Gretzky’s totals are <strong><em>inflated</em></strong> by 15%.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>Let’s see Inflation Factor in action, identifying the players most affected by the timing of their careers.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="651" height="658" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44.png" alt="" class="wp-image-178654" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44.png 651w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44-297x300.png 297w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44-150x152.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44-300x303.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-44-600x606.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>As we expected, players peaking in the 1996-2015 period have been most negatively affected by poor timing. Sure, they’ve made a lot more money than their predecessors. But their stat lines are deflated. Players like Jagr, Kane, Ovechkin, Thornton, and Crosby are among the most impacted, a logical trend give both the timing of their careers and the size of their point totals.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="188"></div>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="643" height="658" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49.png" alt="" class="wp-image-178691" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49.png 643w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49-293x300.png 293w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49-150x153.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49-300x307.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-49-600x614.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>On the reverse, you’ve got the Boomer generation that arrived on time when it came to production. Gretzky unsurprisingly benefitted most — the sport’s greatest point-producer peaking when goals were flying. The swing in Inflation Factor between Claude Giroux (90) and Jari Kurri (118), for example, is eye-opening. Giroux is shorted 10%, while Kurri benefitted 18%, rendering their era-relative totals nearly identical despite a <em>332-point</em>(!) lead by Kurri on paper.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Closing Thoughts</h2>



<p>The new era of Gen-Z scorers, led by Nathan MacKinnon (debut 2013), Leon Draisaitl (2014), Connor McDavid (2015), and Auston Matthews (2016) will continue to fly up NHL career leaderboards. Maybe one of them will reach 1,600 points, McDavid easily being the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/mcdavid-matthews-hughes-projecting-career-totals-for-the-nhls-biggest-stars" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most likely</a> at this stage.</p>



<p>But they too have been adversely affected by timing — a half-season lost between the pandemic-shortened years, plus a fairly neutral scoring climate overall. Each has an Inflation Factor of 93 — comparable to the Crosby/Ovechkin era a decade before. Their factors should rise gradually as the bulge in scoring the <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">last few seasons</a> improves their fortune overall.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="176"></div>



<p>But while we can’t unsee a player’s scoring totals, it’s clear we need to look closer.</p>



<p>The 15-year gap in the debuts of 1,600-point scorers Jagr and Crosby screams how special the feat is today. But it also reminds us to appreciate the lost generation that shared the ice with them. Thornton, Iginla, Malkin, Kane, Stamkos headline the many gifted scorers born into an NHL at the wrong time for offense.</p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<p><em>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X</em>; visit&nbsp;<a href="http://www.adjustedhockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.adjustedhockey.com</a></p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Article presented by Amazon Prime</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="795" height="404" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-178724" style="width:865px;height:auto" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213.jpg 795w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213-300x152.jpg 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213-768x390.jpg 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213-150x76.jpg 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213-600x305.jpg 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2099/07/PRIMN_24_HED_727x404_POST_Final_en-CA_GSS00011213-696x354.jpg 696w" sizes="(max-width: 795px) 100vw, 795px"></a></figure>



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