<p>Understanding when to put stock into early-season NHL statistics comes down to recency bias versus confirmation bias.</p>



<p>Recency bias in perceiving the numbers and trends means being swayed by the “What have you done for me lately?” cliché. If we buy into every high and low half a dozen games into most teams’ schedules, treating every stat and storyline as definitive, we often look silly within a few weeks. As of Oct. 20 last season, the <a href="https://flamesnation.ca/">Calgary Flames</a> were 4-1-0, while the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/">Edmonton Oilers</a> were 2-4-0. Only a fool would’ve declared that the Flames had gained the upper hand in the Battle of Alberta. Calgary ended up missing the playoffs, while the Oilers reached a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final.</p>



<p>Confirmation bias, a.k.a. searching for information consistent with one’s hypothesis, has pitfalls of its own, particularly when it comes to scientific research, but it’s arguably pretty handy for early-season sports takes. If you have an existing concern about a team or player and the early-season results perfectly reflect those feelings, how can that information not be useful?</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="177"></div>



<p>Let’s don the confirmation bias caps, then, and identify a few October NHL stats that already matter. And if I’m proven wrong later on these, let this story be a cautionary tale for me on the dangers of confirmation bias, I guess?</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations">Los Angeles Kings</a> sit 14<sup>th</sup> in expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5</h3>



<p>The Kings finished tops in the league in that stat last season. Then came a disastrous summer in which (a) their top shutdown blueliner, Vladislav Gavrikov, left as a UFA and signed with the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations">New York Rangers</a>, (b) GM Ken Holland traded young right-shot blueliner Jordan Spence to the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations">Ottawa Senators</a> and (c) Holland added veterans Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci to the Kings’ D-corps. The Kings immediately looked like a weakened team defensively on paper, and the early returns are just as alarming as we expected. The Kings have been outscored 6-2 and have a 39.35 percent expected goal share with Ceci on the ice. With higher-quality chances against, the Kings’ goaltending has suffered, with neither Darcy Kuemper nor Anton Forsberg faring well, and Kuemper is day-to-day with a lower-body injury now, too. With top two-way pivot Anze Kopitar also hurt, it’s no wonder L.A. has one win in its first six games.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="196"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Seth Jarvis sits top 10 in the NHL in shots, expected goals and high-danger chances at 5-on-5</h3>



<p>If you follow Daily Faceoff’s fantasy coverage, you’ll know I was extra bullish on Jarvis entering the season, pointing out that he was only entering his age-23 season and finished last year with 46 points in his final 45 games. I foresaw him becoming an All-Star-caliber player this season and leading the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations">Carolina Hurricanes</a> in goals and points. So far, so good, as Jarvis is ripping off a goal per game. The shooting percentage is unsustainably high, sure, but he’s also incredibly efficient at generating chances while also playing a ton of minutes due to his all-situations versatility. I expected him to become a 40-goal, 80-point player in 2025-26, but 45 and 90 feel within reach.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Edmonton Oilers’ team save percentage is .878</h3>



<p>I can’t <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/dont-panic-over-oilers-slow-start-with-one-crucial-exception/">write the same column</a> for a third consecutive year. Please, Stan Bowman, don’t force me to. Here we are just two weeks into the season, and the struggles have already begun for Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Skinner does have a shutout but has allowed three goals with a SV% south of .900 in each of his other three starts. The Oilers are allowing the second-fewest shots per 60 at 5-on-5, so it’s not like their goalies are saddled with impossibly taxing workloads. Their duo simply isn’t good enough to bail them out during the occasional stretch when their top scorers go cold.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="221"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The New York Rangers allow the fewest 5-on-5 scoring chances per game</h3>



<p>We see you, Mike Sullivan. The Blueshirts have struggled horribly to score thanks to the NHL’s second-lowest shooting percentage, but their habits are quietly improved under the two-time Stanley Cup-winning bench boss. Gavrikov and Adam Fox have formed the busiest ‘D’ pairing in the NHL, helping the Rangers more than break even when they’re on the ice despite handling opponents’ top competition. The Rangers don’t necessarily project to be a high-octane group in 2025-26 but still have enough talent, particularly among their top six forwards, that some positive regression should come soon enough. I was bearish on the Blueshirts’ playoff hopes going into this season, but I must admit they’re playing much more structured hockey under Sullivan and deserve to be rewarded for it soon.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jet Greaves leads the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60</h3>



<p>Greaves’ finish to 2024-25 was downright staggering: he went 5-0-0 with a .975 SV% in April, almost carrying the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations">Columbus Blue Jackets</a> to the postseason. He didn’t enter the offseason as Columbus’ clear starter but at the very least earned the right to an open competition with Elvis Merzlikins. Early this season, both netminders have played quite well without getting rewarded for it, as the Jackets’ offense has stagnated, particularly on the power play. But Greaves in particular has stood out. He’s one of the NHL’s smaller goaltenders at six-foot and 188 pounds, but his lateral agility offsets the undersized frame, and he has a real chance to become the Blue Jackets’ No. 1 stopper this year.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="242"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Matthew Schaefer leads all defensemen in skating speed bursts of 20 mph or more</h3>



<p>Oh, baby. The 18-year-old looks like every bit the prodigy we and the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations">New York Islanders</a> hoped he’d be. His breathtaking speed and fluidity are Connor McDavid-like but in a defenseman package. Schaefer is already playing a lot of minutes, producing a point-per-game after five contests, and it’s pretty clear the Isles have a true franchise cornerstone to build around.</p>



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New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer