<p>One of the toughest aspects of the free agent market to project has always been: How much money are these players earning or costing themselves with their play over the course of a season? We can see increases in point production or decreases in play quality with our eyes, but it isn’t always easy to quantify that in dollars. Sometimes we’re only left to grapple with reported offers that leak out into the public sphere.</p>



<p>We have a better idea now on changes in the marketplace thanks to <a href="http://twitter.com/afpanalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AFPAnalytics</a>. This week, AFP Analytics released their final contract projections for pending free agents. When compared with their January midseason projections, we can more accurately quantify changes in a player’s equity.</p>



<p>Maybe equity is the best term for it. Because like a property’s value, it can be assessed based on conditions, but often the sale (or signing) will come in higher or lower depending on a number of variables, including position (or location), scarcity, etc.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="163"></div>



<p>Here are three pending UFAs who drastically increased their value this season:</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-positive-equity">Positive Equity</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Jan. Projection</strong></td><td><strong>May Projection</strong></td><td><strong>Net Change</strong></td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/jake-guentzel/2707">Jake Guentzel</a></td><td>CAR</td><td>6 years x $7.94 m</td><td>7 years x $9.28 m</td><td>$17.3 million</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/sean-monahan/2138">Sean Monahan</a></td><td>WPG</td><td>3 years x $2.87 m</td><td>4 years x $5.3 m</td><td>$12.5 million</td></tr><tr><td><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/sam-reinhart/2364">Sam Reinhart</a></td><td>FLA</td><td>8 years x $10.25 m</td><td>8 years x $11.28 m</td><td>$8.25 million</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><br>Projection Source: <a href="http://twitter.com/afpanalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AFPAnalytics</a></figcaption></figure>



<p>Some of those names will not be a surprise, including Reinhart coming off a 57-goal season. Monahan went for a late first-round pick before the trade deadline to Winnipeg. Guentzel’s production increased in Carolina. Defensemen <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/nikita-zadorov/2147">Nikita Zadorov</a>, <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/matt-roy/4512">Matt Roy</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/jalen-chatfield/3900">Jalen Chatfield</a> all significantly increased their value to the market, as indicated in our latest free agent ranking below.</p>



<p>But there are some players who took a real hit to the wallet over the last eight months. None bigger than Vancouver Canucks center <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/elias-lindholm/2133">Elias Lindholm</a>, whose production dipped from a career-high of 42 goals and 82 points two seasons ago, down to 15 goals and 44 points this season.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-negative-equity">Negative Equity</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Jan. Projection</strong></td><td><strong>May Projection</strong></td><td><strong>Net Change</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Elias Lindholm</td><td>VAN</td><td>7 years x $8.04 m</td><td>5 years x $6.75 m</td><td>($22.4 million)</td></tr><tr><td>Brandon Montour</td><td>FLA</td><td>7 years x $8.72 m</td><td>6 years x $7.7 m</td><td>($14.8 million)</td></tr><tr><td>Brett Pesce</td><td>CAR</td><td>6 years x $6.73 m</td><td>5 years x $6.2 m</td><td>($9.4 million)</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><br>Projection Source: <a href="http://twitter.com/afpanalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AFPAnalytics</a></figcaption></figure>



<p>The wild part about Lindholm’s number is that AFP Analytics’ projection is actually probably a little low. The Calgary Flames were believed to be offering an eight-year deal north of $8 million, likely totaling around $68 million. His current projection, around $34 million, has cut that offer in half. Yes, Lindholm may have lost upwards of $30-plus million between September and now. He was solid for the Canucks in the playoffs and made a ton of subtle, important plays – but his production has not rebounded to the level he was originally asking, which was believed to be around $9 million per year.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="224"></div>



<p>If that’s the case, two things are true: One, the Flames dodged a major bullet. And two, the idea of equity is really just that, an idea. It only truly counts when it is realized, or when the market decides what someone is willing to pay. And there’s a lot to be sorted out between now and when free agency opens on July 1.</p>



<p>With that, here is our latest top free agents ranking, which has expanded to 75 names:</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-daily-faceoff-s-top-75-pending-free-agents">Daily Faceoff’s Top 75 Pending Free Agents</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Pos</strong></td><td><strong>Age</strong></td><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Cap Hit</strong></td><td><strong>GP</strong></td><td><strong>G</strong></td><td><strong>PTS</strong></td><td><strong>AFP Projection</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Sam Reinhart</td><td>RW</td><td>29</td><td>FLA</td><td>$6.5M</td><td>82</td><td>57</td><td>94</td><td>8 x $11.3M</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Jake Guentzel</td><td>LW</td><td>30</td><td>CAR</td><td>$6M</td><td>67</td><td>30</td><td>77</td><td>7 x $9.25M</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Steven Stamkos</td><td>LW/C</td><td>34</td><td>TBL</td><td>$8.5M</td><td>79</td><td>40</td><td>81</td><td>3 x $6.13M</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Brady Skjei</td><td>LD</td><td>30</td><td>CAR</td><td>$5.25M</td><td>80</td><td>13</td><td>47</td><td>5 x $7.5M</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Brandon Montour</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>FLA</td><td>$3.5M</td><td>66</td><td>8</td><td>33</td><td>6 x $7.7M</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Jonathan Marchessault</td><td>RW</td><td>34</td><td>VGK</td><td>$5M</td><td>82</td><td>42</td><td>69</td><td>3 x $6.25M</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Elias Lindholm</td><td>C/RW</td><td>30</td><td>VAN</td><td>$4.85M</td><td>75</td><td>15</td><td>44</td><td>5 x $6.75M</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Chandler Stephenson</td><td>C</td><td>30</td><td>VGK</td><td>$2.75M</td><td>75</td><td>16</td><td>51</td><td>5 x $5.6M</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Joe Pavelski</td><td>RW</td><td>40</td><td>DAL</td><td>$5.5M</td><td>82</td><td>27</td><td>67</td><td>1 x $3.5M</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Patrick Kane</td><td>RW</td><td>36</td><td>DET</td><td>$2.75M</td><td>50</td><td>20</td><td>47</td><td>2 x $6.3M</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Matt Roy</td><td>RD</td><td>29</td><td>LAK</td><td>$3.15M</td><td>81</td><td>5</td><td>25</td><td>5 x $5.8M</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Nikita Zadorov</td><td>LD</td><td>29</td><td>VAN</td><td>$3.75M</td><td>75</td><td>6</td><td>20</td><td>5 x $5.3M</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Matt Duchene</td><td>C/RW</td><td>33</td><td>DAL</td><td>$3M</td><td>80</td><td>25</td><td>65</td><td>3 x $4.8M</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Sean Walker</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>COL</td><td>$2.65M</td><td>81</td><td>10</td><td>29</td><td>3 x $4.65M</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Brett Pesce</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>CAR</td><td>$4.03M</td><td>70</td><td>3</td><td>13</td><td>5 x $6.25M</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Teuvo Teravainen</td><td>LW</td><td>30</td><td>CAR</td><td>$5.4M</td><td>76</td><td>25</td><td>53</td><td>4 x $5.2M</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Tyler Bertuzzi</td><td>LW</td><td>29</td><td>TOR</td><td>$5.5M</td><td>80</td><td>21</td><td>43</td><td>4 x $5.25M</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Tyler Toffoli</td><td>RW</td><td>32</td><td>WPG</td><td>$4.25M</td><td>79</td><td>33</td><td>55</td><td>4 x $6M</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Jake DeBrusk</td><td>LW</td><td>28</td><td>BOS</td><td>$4M</td><td>80</td><td>19</td><td>40</td><td>5 x $5.8M</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Viktor Arvidsson</td><td>RW</td><td>31</td><td>LAK</td><td>$4.25M</td><td>18</td><td>6</td><td>15</td><td>3 x $4.75M</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Jonathan Drouin</td><td>LW</td><td>29</td><td>COL</td><td>$825K</td><td>79</td><td>19</td><td>56</td><td>4 x $5M</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Jalen Chatfield</td><td>RD</td><td>28</td><td>CAR</td><td>$763K</td><td>72</td><td>8</td><td>22</td><td>4 x $3.65M</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Sean Monahan</td><td>C</td><td>30</td><td>WPG</td><td>$2M</td><td>83</td><td>26</td><td>59</td><td>4 x $5.3M</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Max Domi</td><td>RW</td><td>29</td><td>TOR</td><td>$3M</td><td>80</td><td>9</td><td>47</td><td>2 x $3.5M</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Oliver Ekman-Larsson</td><td>LD</td><td>33</td><td>FLA</td><td>$2.25M</td><td>80</td><td>9</td><td>32</td><td>3 x $4.1M</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Chris Tanev</td><td>RD</td><td>35</td><td>DAL</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>75</td><td>2</td><td>19</td><td>3 x $4.7M</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Dakota Joshua</td><td>LW</td><td>28</td><td>VAN</td><td>$825K</td><td>63</td><td>18</td><td>32</td><td>4 x $3.25M</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Vladimir Tarasenko</td><td>RW</td><td>33</td><td>FLA</td><td>$5M</td><td>76</td><td>23</td><td>55</td><td>2 x $4.15M</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Alexandre Carrier</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>NSH</td><td>$2.5M</td><td>73</td><td>4</td><td>20</td><td>3 x $4M</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Shayne Gostisbehere</td><td>LD</td><td>31</td><td>DET</td><td>$4.13M</td><td>81</td><td>10</td><td>56</td><td>3 x $5M</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Tyler Myers</td><td>RD</td><td>34</td><td>VAN</td><td>$6M</td><td>77</td><td>5</td><td>29</td><td>2 x $3.1M</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Alex Wennberg</td><td>C</td><td>30</td><td>NYR</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>79</td><td>10</td><td>30</td><td>4 x $3.85M</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Anthony Duclair</td><td>LW</td><td>29</td><td>TBL</td><td>$3M</td><td>73</td><td>24</td><td>42</td><td>3 x $4.3M</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Yakov Trenin</td><td>LW/C</td><td>28</td><td>COL</td><td>$1.7M</td><td>76</td><td>12</td><td>17</td><td>3 x $2.55M</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Alex Nedeljkovic</td><td>G</td><td>29</td><td>PIT</td><td>$1.5M</td><td>38</td><td>2.96</td><td>.902</td><td>2 x $2.3M</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>David Perron</td><td>RW</td><td>36</td><td>DET</td><td>$4.75M</td><td>76</td><td>17</td><td>47</td><td>2 x $3M</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Warren Foegele</td><td>LW</td><td>28</td><td>EDM</td><td>$2.75M</td><td>82</td><td>20</td><td>41</td><td>3 x $3.9M</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Adam Henrique</td><td>C</td><td>34</td><td>EDM</td><td>$5.83M</td><td>82</td><td>24</td><td>51</td><td>3 x $4.3M</td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td>Anthony Mantha</td><td>LW</td><td>29</td><td>VGK</td><td>$5.7M</td><td>74</td><td>23</td><td>44</td><td>3 x $4.7M</td></tr><tr><td>40</td><td>Brenden Dillon</td><td>LD</td><td>34</td><td>WPG</td><td>$3.9M</td><td>77</td><td>8</td><td>20</td><td>2 x $2.9M</td></tr><tr><td>41</td><td>Jason Zucker</td><td>LW</td><td>32</td><td>NSH</td><td>$5.3M</td><td>69</td><td>14</td><td>32</td><td>2 x $3.7M</td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td>Matt Dumba</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>TBL</td><td>$3.9M</td><td>76</td><td>4</td><td>12</td><td>3 x $3M</td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td>Dylan DeMelo</td><td>RD</td><td>31</td><td>WPG</td><td>$3M</td><td>82</td><td>3</td><td>31</td><td>4 x $5.3M</td></tr><tr><td>44</td><td>Matt Grzelcyk</td><td>LD</td><td>31</td><td>BOS</td><td>$3.7M</td><td>63</td><td>2</td><td>11</td><td>3 x $3.2M</td></tr><tr><td>45</td><td>Stefan Noesen</td><td>RW</td><td>31</td><td>CAR</td><td>$763K</td><td>81</td><td>14</td><td>37</td><td>3 x $3.2M</td></tr><tr><td>46</td><td>Michael Amadio</td><td>RW</td><td>28</td><td>VGK</td><td>$763K</td><td>73</td><td>14</td><td>27</td><td>3 x $3.1M</td></tr><tr><td>47</td><td>Erik Gustafsson</td><td>LD</td><td>32</td><td>NYR</td><td>$825K</td><td>76</td><td>6</td><td>31</td><td>3 x $3.85M</td></tr><tr><td>48</td><td>Daniel Sprong</td><td>RW</td><td>27</td><td>DET</td><td>$2M</td><td>76</td><td>18</td><td>43</td><td>3 x $4M</td></tr><tr><td>49</td><td>Kaapo Kahkonen</td><td>G</td><td>28</td><td>NJD</td><td>$2.75M</td><td>37</td><td>3.64</td><td>.898</td><td>2 x $2M</td></tr><tr><td>50</td><td>Teddy Blueger</td><td>C</td><td>30</td><td>VAN</td><td>$1.9M</td><td>68</td><td>6</td><td>28</td><td>2 x $2.1M</td></tr><tr><td>51</td><td>Jordan Martinook</td><td>LW</td><td>32</td><td>CAR</td><td>$1.8M</td><td>82</td><td>14</td><td>32</td><td>3 x $2.75M</td></tr><tr><td>52</td><td>Ilya Samsonov</td><td>G</td><td>27</td><td>TOR</td><td>$3.55M</td><td>40</td><td>3.13</td><td>.890</td><td>1 x $2.35M</td></tr><tr><td>53</td><td>T.J. Brodie</td><td>LD</td><td>34</td><td>TOR</td><td>$5M</td><td>78</td><td>1</td><td>26</td><td>2 x $3.65M</td></tr><tr><td>54</td><td>Vincent Desharnais</td><td>RD</td><td>28</td><td>EDM</td><td>$763K</td><td>78</td><td>1</td><td>11</td><td>1 x $1.1M</td></tr><tr><td>55</td><td>Jack Roslovic</td><td>RW</td><td>27</td><td>NYR</td><td>$4M</td><td>59</td><td>9</td><td>31</td><td>3 x $3M</td></tr><tr><td>56</td><td>Anthony Beauvillier</td><td>RW</td><td>27</td><td>NSH</td><td>$4.15M</td><td>60</td><td>5</td><td>17</td><td>1 x $900K</td></tr><tr><td>57</td><td>Mattias Janmark</td><td>LW</td><td>31</td><td>EDM</td><td>$1M</td><td>71</td><td>4</td><td>12</td><td>1 x $1M</td></tr><tr><td>58</td><td>Ian Cole</td><td>LD</td><td>35</td><td>VAN</td><td>$3M</td><td>78</td><td>2</td><td>11</td><td>1 x $2.1M</td></tr><tr><td>59</td><td>Tyson Barrie</td><td>RD</td><td>33</td><td>NSH</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>41</td><td>1</td><td>15</td><td>1 x $1.75M</td></tr><tr><td>60</td><td>James van Riemsdyk</td><td>RW</td><td>35</td><td>BOS</td><td>$1M</td><td>71</td><td>11</td><td>38</td><td>1 x $1.2M</td></tr><tr><td>61</td><td>Jani Haakanpaa</td><td>RD</td><td>32</td><td>DAL</td><td>$1.5M</td><td>64</td><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>1 x $1.5M</td></tr><tr><td>62</td><td>Alec Martinez</td><td>LD</td><td>36</td><td>VGK</td><td>$5.25M</td><td>55</td><td>4</td><td>17</td><td>1 x $1.25M</td></tr><tr><td>63</td><td>Cam Talbot</td><td>G</td><td>37</td><td>LAK</td><td>$2M</td><td>54</td><td>2.50</td><td>.913</td><td>1 x $1.8M</td></tr><tr><td>64</td><td>Tony DeAngelo</td><td>RD</td><td>28</td><td>CAR</td><td>$1.68M</td><td>31</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>2 x $1.75M</td></tr><tr><td>65</td><td>Sam Carrick</td><td>C</td><td>32</td><td>EDM</td><td>$850K</td><td>77</td><td>10</td><td>16</td><td>2 x $1.47M</td></tr><tr><td>66</td><td>Brandon Duhaime</td><td>LW</td><td>27</td><td>COL</td><td>$1.1M</td><td>80</td><td>5</td><td>13</td><td>3 x $1.8M</td></tr><tr><td>67</td><td>Tyler Johnson</td><td>RW</td><td>33</td><td>CHI</td><td>$5M</td><td>67</td><td>17</td><td>31</td><td>1 x $1.7M</td></tr><tr><td>68</td><td>Victor Olofsson</td><td>RW</td><td>28</td><td>BUF</td><td>$4.75M</td><td>51</td><td>7</td><td>15</td><td>1 x $1M</td></tr><tr><td>69</td><td>Kevin Labanc</td><td>RW</td><td>28</td><td>SJS</td><td>$4.73M</td><td>46</td><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>1 x $893K</td></tr><tr><td>70</td><td>Mike Hoffman</td><td>RW</td><td>34</td><td>SJS</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>66</td><td>10</td><td>23</td><td>1 x $1.15M</td></tr><tr><td>71</td><td>Joel Edmundson</td><td>LD</td><td>31</td><td>TOR</td><td>$3.5M</td><td>53</td><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>2 x $1.65M</td></tr><tr><td>72</td><td>Scott Wedgewood</td><td>G</td><td>31</td><td>DAL</td><td>$1M</td><td>32</td><td>2.85</td><td>.899</td><td>1 x $1.8M</td></tr><tr><td>73</td><td>Casey DeSmith</td><td>G</td><td>32</td><td>VAN</td><td>$1.8M</td><td>29</td><td>2.89</td><td>.896</td><td>1 x $1.65M</td></tr><tr><td>74</td><td>Oliver Kylington</td><td>LD</td><td>27</td><td>CGY</td><td>$2.5M</td><td>33</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>1 x $1.1M</td></tr><tr><td>75</td><td>Max Pacioretty</td><td>LW</td><td>35</td><td>WSH</td><td>$2M</td><td>47</td><td>4</td><td>23</td><td>1 x $1.5M</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><br>Contract Projection Source: <a href="http://www.twitter.com/afpanalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AFPAnalytics</a></figcaption></figure>



<p>_____</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.dailyfaceoff.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2024%2F04%2F727x404_bFIX.png&amp;w=2048&amp;q=75" alt=""></figure>



<p></p>



<p>Hey, hockey heads! Get ready for&nbsp;<a href="https://games.dailyfaceoff.com/games/playoff-parlay-challenge" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Daily Faceoff Playoff Parlay Challenge</a>! Each game day, answer four playoff prediction questions like who will win the first game, will points be over or under or what will be the highest-scoring period? Daily winners snag gift cards, while each round’s champs pocket cash! Play now at&nbsp;<a href="http://games.dailyfaceoff.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">games.dailyfaceoff.com</a>&nbsp;and prove your puck prowess! It’s fast, it’s fun, and it’s all about hockey! Let’s go!</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="150"></div>



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<li><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/burning-questions-for-round-2s-eliminated-teams-whats-next-nichushkin-ullmark-and-more/">Burning questions for Round 2’s eliminated teams: What’s next Nichushkin, Ullmark and more</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-edmonton-oilers-are-truly-canadas-team-entering-western-conference-final">The Edmonton Oilers are truly Canada’s team entering Western Conference Final</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/canucks-can-fully-unravel-oilers-season-start-to-finish-with-a-game-7-win">Canucks can fully unravel Oilers’ season, start to finish, with a Game 7 win</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/j-t-miller-mr-misunderstood-has-canucks-on-brink-of-conference-final-berth">Mr. Misunderstood: J.T. Miller has Canucks on brink of Conference Final berth</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/kris-knoblauchs-ballsy-bet-on-calvin-pickard-has-turned-tide-for-oilers-vs-canucks">Kris Knoblauch’s ballsy bet on Calvin Pickard has turned tide for Oilers vs. Canucks</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sources-oilers-plan-to-start-calvin-pickard-in-net-for-game-4-vs-canucks">Sources: Oilers plan to start Calvin Pickard in net for Game 4 vs. Canucks</a></li>
</ul>
