Oddsmakers have been highly reluctant to accept that the Washington Capitals are a legitimately good team this season, and that still looks to be true given their +1000 (bet365) price tag to win the Presidents’ Trophy.
The Capitals have been the most profitable betting side in the NHL with a record of 20-6-2, and have generally been priced as underdogs in all matchups versus high-quality opponents. They entered the season with a modest season point total of 89.5, and were priced as long as 40/1 to win the Metropolitan Division.
If you are remotely familiar with my work, you are likely aware that I’ve been very bullish on the Capitals this season. In a number of preseason articles and podcasts, I outlined why head coach Spencer Carbery was a good bet to win the Jack Adams Award, and also posted the Capitals at 40/1 to win the Metropolitan Division this summer.
There does still look to be value if you want to get involved with the Capitals in the futures market, backing them to win the Presidents Trophy at +1000.
The Capitals currently rank first in the NHL in point percentage (.750), and also rank first in goal differential. They rank fifth in expected goal share across all strengths, and fourth in even-strength expected goal share.
Washington has also played one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far, and it has one of the softest remaining schedules based on opponents’ average win percentage.
The Capitals weren’t supposed to be this dominant, and the fact that numerous key skaters are off to career-best starts is one reason many observers continue to expect them to come down to earth. They hold the NHL’s second-highest shooting percentage, and do have a number of players producing far more than expected.
The Caps’ offensive output may slow down to some extent, but a number of their greatest strengths should prove sustainable moving forward.
Carbery has done an excellent job of providing clear expectations to his group, and defining concise roles for each skater on the roster. Many of Washington’s so-called overachievers are guys that held high expectations at some point in their career, that are now thriving under one of the best coaching staffs in the NHL.
The Capitals feature excellent depth down the middle, as an aging Lars Eller is their only center providing average results.
Dylan Strome has produced like a true number-one center with 36 points in 28 games. He was the third-overall pick in the stacked 2015 draft class, and is now living up to his potential in his true prime now at age 27, after floundering away in bad situations in Chicago and Arizona prior to arriving in Washington.
Pierre-Luc Dubois has done an excellent job in a role as the team’s second-line center. He’s spent a lot of time matched up against the opposition’s top offensive lines, and the Caps’ second unit has fared quite well in those minutes. Like Strome, Dubois was also a third-overall selection who is now living up to his potential under Carbery.
The Capitals are rostering one of the deepest defensive cores in the league. Of all their strengths thus far, it’s the one which looks to be most sustainable.
Newcomer Jakob Chychrun has put up eight goals and 18 points in 23 games, and has arguably even outperformed John Carlson this season. Matt Roy is a stabilizing presence on the back end as expected, and Rasmus Sandin continues to shine in all three zones.
The Capitals have seven quality NHL defenders in the organization, and we have already seen that strength prove useful in games where Roy and Chychrun have been unavailable due to injury.
Washington also features two quality goaltenders in Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren, which is an edge that is particularly relevant in this specific market. The Capitals are more likely to pile up points in Lindgren’s starts than a number of other Presidents’ Trophy contenders are when their backups are in.
Goal differential has always been considered a strong indicator of future success in the NHL, and the Capitals have achieved their league-leading goal differential with strong underlying results.
While I wouldn’t argue the Caps deserve to be a Cup favorite, they do seem to remain undervalued in this specific market given their soft remaining schedule, and the fact that they are already in the thick of the race, one point behind Winnipeg for the league lead in points.
The Capitals’ goal differential and underlying results suggest they are far from a ‘fraud’, and their soft schedule should help them continue to rack up points at a lofty clip.
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