Fantasy hockey in the regular season often mirrors the real GM experience. You draft and sculpt a roster featuring players in various roles. You scour the waiver wire for season-changing pickups and work the phones to make trades. Most of the time, the best and most dedicated GMs finish at or near the top of the table.

Fantasy hockey playoff pools? They’re a more like showing up at the track and betting on horses. You play a hunch, ideally an educated one, on a predicted outcome. You make your picks and can’t touch anything after that. Then you sit back, cheer until you’re hoarse and hope luck is on your side.

Playoff pools aren’t always about picking the best players. It’s more important to back the teams who last the longest, as volume is king. Four rounds of a third-round agitator can net you more points than one series of a superstar. The Florida Panthers’ Evan Rodrigues got 15 points last postseason coming off a 39-point regular season; the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov got seven in the playoffs after a league-leading 144 points in the regular season.

Playoff pools factor in a lot more chance and aren’t always the most just in their outcomes – but they sure are fun, levelling the playing field between casual and serious players.

Since player production isn’t traditional in a postseason format, ranking players isn’t, either. I can’t list every player in order of pure fantasy value. Instead, I can offer up an extremely subjective list factoring in how far I expect every team to go in the playoffs. We love the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars for fantasy value, but guess what? Thanks to the ingenious NHL playoff format pitting them against each other in Round 1, one of those juggernaut teams is guaranteed to play no more than seven games. Are you willing to take Jake Oettinger with an early pick knowing his Stars are playing a pick ’em series?

But that’s just where I land in my projections. Maybe you’re convinced a certain team goes all the way regardless of its first-round draw, and that’s OK. You’re best off treating this list as a loose blueprint instead of a must-follow order for a regular-season draft. If you have a strong gut feeling about a certain team going on a deep run, adjust your own rankings accordingly.

Scoring system for these rankings: total points for players and wins for goalies, also worth one point each. I’m keeping it simple because playoff pools tend to be casual and go simply on points. Players marked with asterisks have injuries that could keep them out for the start of the postseason.

Good luck and, as always, hit me up (@MLarkinHockey on Twitter) if you notice any glaring player omissions.

TIER 1A: McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Makar

Among players with at least 50 career postseason games, only Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux average more points per game in the playoffs than Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon. And Bobby Orr is the only defenseman with a higher playoff scoring average than Makar. Even though the Oilers are extremely banged up and the Avs have a tough matchup, you can’t overthink it here. Each is capable of 15 points in a single round, so we make an exception for the generational talents.

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers
Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers*
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche*
Cale Makar, D, Avalanche

TIER 1B: Superstar Player, Elite Team, Easier Path

These guys check all the boxes: fantasy studs on juggernaut teams expected to make it to Round 2 at least. Your high first-round picks.

Connor Hellebuyck, G, Jets
Jack Eichel, C, Golden Knights*
Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs
Kyle Connor, LW, Jets
William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs

TIER 2: Superstar Player, Elite Team, Difficult Path

These players are all-world in the regular season. But if a superstar’s team has a challenging road through the playoffs, it has to give you some pause. How many games will the guys in this tier play?

Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Lightning

TIER 3: Superstar Player, Good Team

This is a tricky tier. You’ll find Grade-A talent here, guys you wouldn’t hesitate to draft in the first round in the regular season. But some of these names could see their seasons end within two weeks.

Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers
Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Panthers*

TIER 4: Elite Player, Elite Team

If you have a really strong hunch about the team any of these guys plays for, bump them into the next tier. A point-per-game producer or stud goalie who plays into the Conference Final and beyond could be a building block of your championship squad.

Jake Oettinger, G, Stars
Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning
Victor Hedman, D, Lightning
Mark Scheifele, C, Jets
Brayden Point, C, Lightning
Jason Robertson, LW, Stars
Jake Guentzel, LW, Lightning
Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes
Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals
Josh Morrissey, D, Jets
Logan Thompson, G, Capitals*
Mikko Rantanen, RW, Stars
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, Avalanche
Mark Stone, RW, Golden Knights
Wyatt Johnston, C, Stars
Adin Hill, G, Golden Knights
John Tavares, C, Maple Leafs
Anthony Stolarz, G, Maple Leafs
Seth Jarvis, LW, Hurricanes
Martin Necas, RW, Avalanche
Roope Hintz, C, Stars
Dylan Strome, C, Capitals
Matthew Knies, LW, Maple Leafs

TIER 5: Elite Player, Good Team

Given the all-star talent here, it’s not the worst idea to grab someone from this tier in hopes he plays multiple rounds. But it would be risky to pick too many, as some of the teams reflected in here will go home early.

Aleksander Barkov, C, Panthers
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers
Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers
Darcy Kuemper, G, Kings
Adrian Kempe, LW, Kings

TIER 6: Good Player, Elite Team

Some of these players are merely support pieces in regular-season pools, but they can be heroes in your playoff pools if their teams go all the way.

Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights
Miro Heiskanen, D, Stars*
Matt Duchene, C, Stars
Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Avalanche*
John Carlson, D, Capitals
Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Capitals
Aliaksei Protas, C, Capitals*
Tomas Hertl, C, Golden Knights
Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Hurricanes
Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Jets*
Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Avalanche*
Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Hurricanes
Jakob Chychrun, D, Capitals
Gabe Vilardi, RW, Jets
Thomas Harley, D, Stars
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Hurricanes
Ivan Barbashev, LW, Golden Knights
Devon Toews, D, Avalanche
Cole Perfetti, RW, Jets
Jamie Benn, LW, Stars
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Avalanche*
Jonathan Drouin, LW, Avalanche*
Pavel Dorofeyev, RW, Golden Knights
Tyler Seguin, C, Stars
Connor McMichael, LW, Capitals
Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs
Brock Nelson, C, Avalanche

TIER 7: Superstar or Elite Player, Underdog Team

These players traditionally would rank WAY higher, but I’m predicting they play only 4-7 games. But it’s not the worst idea to snag one player from this group in hopes that he puts up monster production even if it’s just for one round.

Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild
Jesper Bratt, RW, Devils
Lane Hutson, D, Canadiens
Nick Suzuki, C, Canadiens
Robert Thomas, C, Blues
Tim Stutzle, C, Senators
Nico Hischier, C, Devils
Cole Caufield, RW, Canadiens
Matt Boldy, RW, Wild
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators*
Linus Ullmark, G, Senators
Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues
Jacob Markstrom, G, Devils
Jake Sanderson, D, Senators
Jordan Binnington, G, Blues
Filip Gustavsson, G, Wild
Dougie Hamilton, D, Devils
Dylan Holloway, LW, Blues*

TIER 8: Good Player, Good Team

This is my favorite tier. If you play the right hunch on the right Cinderella team and hit on a couple players in this tier, you go all the way.

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Panthers
Zach Hyman, LW, Oilers*
Anze Kopitar, C, Kings
Kevin Fiala, LW, Kings
Quinton Byfield, C, Kings*
Stuart Skinner, G, Oilers
Calvin Pickard, G, Oilers
Sam Bennett, C, Panthers
Gustav Forsling, D, Panthers
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Oilers
Drew Doughty, D, Kings*
Brad Marchand, LW, Panthers
Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, Kings
Jake Walman, D, Oilers

TIER 9: Depth Player, Elite Team

This is where you galaxy brain it. Do you bank on great per-game production from some highly skilled players on teams that might not go far in Tier 7? Or do you hope some of these guys play 20 to 25 games and give you a dozen points?

Mason Marchment, LW, Stars
Jackson Blake, RW, Hurricanes
Mikael Granlund, LW, Stars
Noah Hanifin, D, Golden Knights
Neal Pionk, D, Jets
Nick Paul, C, Lightning
Ryan Leonard, LW, Capitals
Darren Raddysh, D, Lightning*
William Karlsson, C, Golden Knights
Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Stars
Ross Colton, C, Avalanche*
Alex Pietrangelo, D, Golden Knights*
Charlie Coyle, C, Avalanche
Mavrik Bourque, RW, Stars
Reilly Smith, RW, Golden Knights
Taylor Hall, LW, Hurricanes
Nino Niederreiter, LW, Jets
Brock Faber, D, Wild
Vlad Namestnikov, C, Jets
Max Domi, C, Maple Leafs
Joseph Woll, G, Maple Leafs
Victor Olofsson, LW, Golden Knights
Brett Howden, C, Golden Knights
Adam Lowry, C, Jets
Alex Iafallo, LW, Jets
Rasmus Sandin, D, Capitals
Jordan Staal, C, Hurricanes
Yanni Gourde, C, Lightning
Mark Jankowski, C, Hurricanes
Bobby McMann, LW, Maple Leafs
Jared Spurgeon, D, Wild
Logan Stankoven, RW, Hurricanes
Frederick Gaudreau, C, Wild
Jack Roslovic, C, Hurricanes
Ryan McDonagh, D, Lightning
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Maple Leafs*

TIER 10: The Leftovers

The most subjective tier. You’ll find some solid players in here, many who are more skilled than the Tier-9 guys. You can rank them higher if you have more faith in their teams than I do.

Timo Meier, RW, Devils
Drake Batherson, RW, Senators
Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Canadiens
Marco Rossi, C, Wild
Pavel Buchnevich, RW, Blues
Mats Zuccarello, RW, Wild
Luke Hughes, D, Devils
Sam Montembeault, G, Canadiens
Thomas Chabot, D, Senators
Claude Giroux, C, Senators
Dylan Cozens, C, Senators
Brayden Schenn, C, Blues
Patrik Laine, RW, Canadiens
Anton Lundell, C, Panthers
Cam Fowler, D, Blues
Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers*
Evan Rodrigues, RW, Panthers
Jake Neighbours, LW, Blues
Ivan Demidov, RW, Canadiens
Warren Foegele, LW, Kings
Jeff Skinner, LW, Oilers
Seth Jones, D, Panthers
Phillip Danault, C, Kings
Alex Laferriere, RW, Kings
Connor Brown, RW, Oilers
Trevor Moore, LW, Kings
Colton Parayko, D, Blues
Brandt Clarke, D, Kings
Shane Pinto, C, Senators
Zack Bolduc, C, Blues
Corey Perry, RW, Oilers
Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Oilers
Stefan Noesen, RW, Devils
Dawson Mercer, RW, Deviils
Ridly Greig, C, Senators
Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Panthers
Scott Wedgewood, G, Avalanche
Charlie Lindgren, G, Capitals
Philip Broberg, D, Blues
Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, Blues

Top 150 at a glance

1. Connor McDavid, C, Oilers
2. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers*
3. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche*
4. Cale Makar, D, Avalanche
5. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Jets
6. Jack Eichel, C, Golden Knights*
7. Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs
8. Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs
9. Kyle Connor, LW, Jets
10. William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs
11. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning
12. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Lightning
13. Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers
14. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Panthers*
15. Jake Oettinger, G, Stars
16. Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning
17. Victor Hedman, D, Lightning
18. Mark Scheifele, C, Jets
19. Brayden Point, C, Lightning
20. Jason Robertson, LW, Stars*
21. Jake Guentzel, LW, Lightning
22. Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes
23. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals
24. Josh Morrissey, D, Jets
25. Logan Thompson, G, Capitals*
26. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Stars
27. Mackenzie Blackwood, G, Avalanche
28. Mark Stone, RW, Golden Knights
29. Wyatt Johnston, C, Stars
30. Adin Hill, G, Golden Knights
31. John Tavares, C, Maple Leafs
32. Anthony Stolarz, G, Maple Leafs
33. Seth Jarvis, LW, Hurricanes
34. Martin Necas, RW, Avalanche
35. Roope Hintz, C, Stars
36. Dylan Strome, C, Capitals
37. Matthew Knies, LW, Maple Leafs
38. Aleksander Barkov, C, Panthers
39. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers
40. Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers
41. Darcy Kuemper, G, Kings
42. Adrian Kempe, LW, Kings
43. Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights
44. Miro Heiskanen, D, Stars*
45. Matt Duchene, C, Stars
46. Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Avalanche*
47. John Carlson, D, Capitals
48. Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals
49. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Capitals
50. Aliaksei Protas, C, Capitals*
51. Tomas Hertl, C, Golden Knights
52. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Hurricanes
53. Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning
54. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Jets*
55. Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Avalanche*
56. Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes
57. Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Hurricanes
58. Jakob Chychrun, D, Capitals
60. Gabe Vilardi, RW, Jets
61. Thomas Harley, D, Stars
62. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Hurricanes
63. Ivan Barbashev, LW, Golden Knights
64. Devon Toews, D, Avalanche
65. Cole Perfetti, RW, Jets
66. Jamie Benn, LW, Stars
67. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Avalanche*
68. Jonathan Drouin, LW, Avalanche*
69. Pavel Dorofeyev, RW, Golden Knights
70. Tyler Seguin, C, Stars
71. Connor McMichael, LW, Capitals
72. Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs
73. Brock Nelson, C, Avalanche
74. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild
75. Jesper Bratt, RW, Devils
76. Lane Hutson, D, Canadiens
77. Nick Suzuki, C, Canadiens
78. Robert Thomas, C, Blues
79. Tim Stutzle, C, Senators
80. Nico Hischier, C, Devils
81. Cole Caufield, RW, Canadiens
82. Matt Boldy, RW, Wild
83. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators*
84. Linus Ullmark, G, Senators
85. Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues
86. Jacob Markstrom, G, Devils
87. Jake Sanderson, D, Senators
88. Jordan Binnington, G, Blues
89. Filip Gustavsson, G, Wild
90. Dougie Hamilton, D, Devils
91. Dylan Holloway, LW, Blues*
92. Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Panthers
93. Zach Hyman, LW, Oilers*
94. Anze Kopitar, C, Kings
95. Kevin Fiala, LW, Kings
96. Quinton Byfield, C, Kings*
97. Stuart Skinner, G, Oilers
98. Calvin Pickard, G, Oilers
99. Sam Bennett, C, Panthers
100. Gustav Forsling, D, Panthers
101. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Oilers
102. Drew Doughty, D, Kings*
103. Brad Marchand, LW, Panthers
104. Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, Kings
105. Jake Walman, D, Oilers
106. Mason Marchment, LW, Stars
107. Jackson Blake, RW, Hurricanes
108. Mikael Granlund, LW, Stars
109. Noah Hanifin, D, Golden Knights
110. Neal Pionk, D, Jets
111. Nick Paul, C, Lightning
112. Ryan Leonard, LW, Capitals
113. Darren Raddysh, D, Lightning*
114. William Karlsson, C, Golden Knights
115. Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Stars
116. Ross Colton, C, Avalanche*
117. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Golden Knights*
118. Charlie Coyle, C, Avalanche
119. Mavrik Bourque, RW, Stars
120. Reilly Smith, RW, Golden Knights
121. Taylor Hall, LW, Hurricanes
122. Nino Niederreiter, LW, Jets
123. Brock Faber, D, Wild
124. Vlad Namestnikov, C, Jets
125. Max Domi, C, Maple Leafs
126. Joseph Woll, G, Maple Leafs
127. Victor Olofsson, LW, Golden Knights
128. Brett Howden, C, Golden Knights
129. Adam Lowry, C, Jets
130. Alex Iafallo, LW, Jets
131. Rasmus Sandin, D, Capitals
132. Jordan Staal, C, Hurricanes
133. Yanni Gourde, C, Lightning
134. Mark Jankowski, C, Hurricanes
135. Bobby McMann, LW, Maple Leafs
136. Jared Spurgeon, D, Wild
137. Logan Stankoven, RW, Hurricanes
138. Frederick Gaudreau, C, Wild
139. Jack Roslovic, C, Hurricanes
140. Ryan McDonagh, D, Lightning
141. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Maple Leafs*
142. Timo Meier, RW, Devils
143. Drake Batherson, RW, Senators
144. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Canadiens
145. Marco Rossi, C, Wild
146. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, Blues
147. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Wild
148. Luke Hughes, D, Devils
149. Sam Montembeault, G, Canadiens
150. Thomas Chabot, D, Senators

On the bubble

Claude Giroux, C, Senators
Dylan Cozens, C, Senators
Brayden Schenn, C, Blues
Patrik Laine, RW, Canadiens
Anton Lundell, C, Panthers
Cam Fowler, D, Blues
Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers*
Evan Rodrigues, RW, Panthers
Jake Neighbours, LW, Blues
Ivan Demidov, RW, Canadiens
Warren Foegele, LW, Kings
Jeff Skinner, LW, Oilers
Seth Jones, D, Panthers
Phillip Danault, C, Kings
Alex Laferriere, RW, Kings
Connor Brown, RW, Oilers
Trevor Moore, LW, Kings
Colton Parayko, D, Blues
Brandt Clarke, D, Kings
Shane Pinto, C, Senators
Zack Bolduc, C, Blues
Corey Perry, RW, Oilers
Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Oilers
Stefan Noesen, RW, Devils
Dawson Mercer, RW, Deviils
Ridly Greig, C, Senators
Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Panthers
Scott Wedgewood, G, Avalanche
Charlie Lindgren, G, Capitals
Philip Broberg, D, Blues
Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, Blues

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