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Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe?



It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL Trade Deadline passes as we reassess the league’s power structure based on which players changed teams. Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?



Over the past two weeks, I’ve identified a ‘Stanley Cup recipe’&nbsp;by searching for traits common among the previous 10 Stanley Cup winners. I narrowed the ingredient list down to seven characteristics. It wasn’t as simple as just being good at everything. For instance, there wasn’t a strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup.<div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="133"></div>



Using these parameters, which NHL roster has just the right mix of championship material this season?



Today, we arrive at the conclusion of this eight-part series. So far, I’ve outlined the seven regular-season ingredients I’ve identified as strongly correlated with recent championship success in the NHL:



<a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/how-much-does-size-matter-when-trying-to-win-the-stanley-cup">1. Team Weight </a>– ranking among the 10 heaviest teams in the NHL <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/how-hard-is-it-to-win-a-stanley-cup-without-an-elite-scorer">2. Top-10 Scorer(s)</a> – Having at least one player who is top 10 in points or points per game <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/no-stud-goaltender-no-stanley-cup/" data-type="post" data-id="105385">3. Top 10 Goalie </a>– Having a goaltender who plays at least half his team’s games and ranks top-10 in save percentage <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/do-you-still-have-to-be-an-analytics-darling-to-win-the-stanley-cup/" data-type="post" data-id="105408">4. Shot Attempt Share</a> –&nbsp;Ranking top 10 in the NHL in Corsi For percentage <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/kill-penalties-or-be-killed-if-you-want-to-win-the-stanley-cup/" data-type="post" data-id="105685">5. Penalty Killing Efficiency </a>–&nbsp;Having a top 10 penalty kill in the NHL <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/my-precious-do-you-need-players-with-stanley-cup-rings-when-building-a-contender/" data-type="post" data-id="105984">6. Stanley Cup Rings </a>– Having at least one player who has already won a Stanley Cup<div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="139"></div>



<a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/stand-pat-or-load-up-what-the-past-10-stanley-cup-winners-did-at-the-trade-deadline/" data-type="post" data-id="106203">7. Trade Deadline Deals</a> – Trading for at least one roster upgrade between Jan. 1 and the deadline Now it’s time to mix all the ingredients together and see which 2022-23 teams check the most boxes. Will the formula spit out a viable Cup contender?



Here’s a look at how all 32 teams grade out in the Stanley Cup Ingredients, with data based on games played through Monday, March 20:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stanley Cup Ingredients, 1-7</h2>







<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Team</td><td>Heavy</td><td>Top Scorer</td><td>Top Goalie</td><td>CF% King</td><td>Strong PK</td><td>Cup Rings</td><td>Trade(s)</td></tr><tr><td>Anaheim</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Arizona</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Boston</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Buffalo</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Calgary</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Carolina</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Chicago</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Colorado</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Columbus</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Dallas</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Detroit</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Edmonton</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Florida</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td></tr><tr><td>Los Angeles</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Minnesota</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Montreal</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Nashville</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>New Jersey</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>NY Islanders</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>NY Rangers</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Ottawa</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Philadelphia</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>San Jose</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Seattle</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>St. Louis</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Toronto</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Vancouver</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Vegas</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Washington</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr><tr><td>Winnipeg</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td><td>No</td><td>Yes</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>







Now, we consolidate the data to summarize which teams fared the best:



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Most Stanley Cup Ingredients, 2022-23 NHL teams</h3>







MICHELIN STAR Boston Bruins, 6 Dallas Stars, 6



DELICIOUS Colorado Avalanche, 5 Tampa Bay Lightning, 5



COULD USE A PINCH OF SALT Calgary Flames, 4 Carolina Hurricanes, 4 Edmonton Oilers, 4 Nashville Predators, 4 New Jersey Devils, 4 New York Islanders, 4 Toronto Maple Leafs, 4 Vegas Golden Knights, 4 Washington Capitals, 4 Winnipeg Jets, 4



BLAND Anaheim Ducks, 3 Buffalo Sabres, 3 Florida Panthers, 3 Los Angeles Kings, 3 New York Rangers, 3 Ottawa Senators, 3 Pittsburgh Penguins, 3 San Jose Sharks, 3 Seattle Kraken, 3 Vancouver Canucks, 3<div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="150"></div>



SEND IT BACK Arizona Coyotes, 2 Chicago Blackhawks, 2 Detroit Red Wings, 2 Minnesota Wild, 2 Montreal Canadiens, 2 St. Louis Blues, 2



CALL THE HEALTH INSPECTOR Columbus Blue Jackets, 1 Philadelphia Flyers, 1



Some key takeaways:



– The Stars almost got a perfect score. They only missed on Shot Attempt Share, and they rank 12th in that stat. They have the pillars you want in a championship team, too: elite goaltender in Jake Oettinger, superstar scorer in Jason Roberson and anchor defenseman in Miro Heiskanen. Watch out, Western Conference. The Bruins matched in the same six categories and rank 15th in Shot Attempt Share. – Have the Leafs maneuvered their way from contender to pretender? They check four of the seven boxes, which is fine, but they would’ve checked at least five boxes before the Trade Deadline. They were ninth in Shot Attempt Share at that point but have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league since overhauling their squad with six new lineup regulars, and their penalty kill sits just outside the top 10. – For the most part, the right teams rank in the right spots, validating the formula, Of the 16 teams currently in playoff positions, 15 placed in (or tied for) the top 16 among the Ingredients Rankings. Only the Minnesota Wild sound alarm bells, checking just two boxes, but their rank is deceiving when factoring in that Filip Gustavsson hasn’t played enough games in net to qualify for ‘Top-10 goalie.’<div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="239"></div>



– Meanwhile, Tank Nation was done justice, with the Flyers, Blue Jackets, Blackhawks and Coyotes ranking among the lowest-rated teams.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion</h3>







Look at those top four teams: Boston, Dallas, plus the winners of the past three Stanley Cups in Tampa Bay and Colorado. It appears the recipe is still seasoned correctly. You could do much worse than predicting one of Boston or Tampa squaring off against one of Dallas or Colorado in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Final.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recently by Matt Larkin</h2>



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