<p>Last week, I put together a piece on the advantages to an <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/is-it-better-for-a-team-to-be-good-at-offense-or-defense" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">offensive-minded team vs. a defensive-minded one</a>, and while I didn’t exactly come to a specific conclusion, I did come across an interesting bit of information: four of the last five Stanley Cup winners finished in the top 10 in 5v5 expected goal generation and suppression, with the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche being the lone exception (but still ranking 13th in 5v5 expected goal generation and sixth in 5v5 expected goal suppression).</p>



<p>So with the season almost halfway over, I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at this newfound theory and apply it to this season’s teams. Is this theory the secret to finding out the Stanley Cup winner? Of course not; the year before this five-year stretch saw the 2017-18 Washington Capitals that ranked 21st in expected goal generation and 27th in expected goal suppression win the Cup, so it’s far from a be-all and end-all. But, I thought it’d be fun to take a look at it and see what teams come up this season, and then just let the season play out and hope that I’m right.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="192"></div>



<p>Beware though: there will be teams that make the list that may surprise the average fan, and there will be teams that don’t make the list that will definitely upset the average fan, including a good chunk of the teams at the top of the standings right now.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-on-the-cusp">On the Cusp</h2>



<p>First off, let’s dive into the 2021-22 Avalanche aspect of this theory. These are the teams that are top 10 in one stat but only in the 11-16 range of the other, still good but do need to improve in one area, or they have the talent either in terms of shooting or goaltending to overcome that area needing improvement, much like the 2021-22 Avs. I sorted them into two categories: the ones that are good offensively but need to improve defensively, and the ones that are good defensively but need to improve offensively.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="142"></div>



<p><strong>Good Offensively, Bad Defensively </strong>– The New Jersey Devils, Vegas Golden Knights, and Nashville Predators all fall under this umbrella. The Golden Knights probably aren’t much of a concern, as they seemed to be doing the classic post-Cup win autopilot mode in terms of their on-ice play, even if they still got wins in the process. The Preds are more of an example of how the underlying numbers can over-project a team that lacks the actual talent, but at the very least they can get away with bad defense with Juuse Saros. The Devils are one that will actually need to see some improvement though, as their defense has taken a step back from last season, and the goaltending hasn’t helped their case.</p>



<p><strong>Good Defensively, Bad Offensively</strong> – The Philadelphia Flyers, Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets fall under this category and it’s not a complete surprise as they’ve all been excellent defensively this year, but they may need a bit more offense to put them over the top. The Jets and Avs likely need a bit more depth to help their case, while the Flyers need a more of a big impact player, although I doubt they’ll be making any bold additions considering the current plan of the team. The Dallas Stars are the other team that fall under this category, and that may come as a big shock considering they have the most 20-point players in the league. However, that’s less to do with their ability to drive scoring chances, and more because the talent they have on the roster can finish the ones they do get. If there’s a team that could be an outlier like the 2021-22 Avalanche in this theory, this is the team I’d look at.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="291"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Carolina Hurricanes</h2>



<p><strong>5v5 xGF/60: </strong>2.85 (t-7th)<br><strong>5v5 xGA/60: </strong>2.39 (t-5th)</p>



<p>This may come as a surprise to some to see the Hurricanes on this list considering that they’ve only recently managed to get more of a secure spot in their division. The Canes have been a consistently elite team for years now and they just came off of a run to the Eastern Conference Final, so in that sense seeing them on this list shouldn’t be shocking, but this team hasn’t felt quite the same. So why are they here?</p>



<p>Well, the thing is, they are close to the same old Canes; that play has just been hidden by the much-talked about issue of their goaltending. Frederik Andersen has been out due to a blood clot issue, Antti Raanta has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL this season, and Pyotr Kochetkov has only just figured out his game, which is part of the reason the Canes have been winning more recently. Their numbers haven’t been as dominant as they have been in past seasons, but this is still one of the best teams in the league right now, and they may be even more dangerous this season with a few more offensive options.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="203"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Edmonton Oilers</h2>



<p><strong>5v5 xGF/60: </strong>2.91 (5th)<br><strong>5v5 xGA/60: </strong>2.39 (6th)</p>



<p>If you thought the Canes were a shocking inclusion, this one will come out of nowhere for you. After all, the Oilers have only just re-entered the playoff conversation, so a Stanley Cup shouldn’t really be the first thing you think about with this team at the moment. But much like the Canes, the Oilers’ issues have lied mostly with their goaltending, and even then that has begun to sort itself out with Stuart Skinner rocking a .9148 5v5 save percentage in his last 18 games.</p>



<p>Beyond that, this Oilers team has the best offense in the league, and it’s no surprise with guys like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster and Zach Hyman also having the best season of his career so far. Their defense isn’t flawless, but it’s been better than given credit for, particularly that top pair of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. They’ll need a bit more depth to avoid the past issues of their offense getting shut down by elite teams in the playoffs, and they’ll have to hope that it’s the more recent version of Skinner that comes to play in the playoffs and not the one that showed up earlier in the year.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="209"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Florida Panthers</h2>



<p><strong>5v5 xGF/60: </strong>2.85 (t-7th)<br><strong>5v5 xGA/60: </strong>2.39 (t-5th)</p>



<p>It’s not often that a team coming off a Stanley Cup Final appearance (and doing so with a bit more legitimacy than a certain Montreal Canadiens team) comes into the following season with low expectations, but considering the injuries that the Panthers were faced with to start the year, it was hard to see how they’d survive. Not only did they survive, they thrived, and now with both Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour back, the Panthers look to be in great shape to make another deep run.</p>



<p>The most interesting thing about the Panthers’ success so far this season is that it’s come despite the struggles of Matthew Tkachuk, who many thought would need to have a repeat of his previous season that made him a Hart finalist in order for the Panthers to overcome their early injuries. Instead, they sit at 23-12-2 while Tkachuk has just six goals and 28 points through 37 games. Whether it’s a bit of bad luck or lingering injury issues (or both), if Tkachuk returns to form, this Panthers team may be unbeatable based on their current play.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="191"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Los Angeles Kings</h2>



<p><strong>5v5 xGF/60: </strong>3.02 (3rd)<br><strong>5v5 xGA/60: </strong>2.3 (1st)</p>



<p>The Kings have had unfortunate luck in the past two seasons, as despite all the work they’ve put into rebuilding this roster and making it competitive again not even 10 years removed from their last Stanley Cup win, their attempts at adding to their trophy collection have been thwarted by the Oilers in back-to-back years. Even with the Oilers looking poised to contend based on this theory, the Kings have responded and put together a contender of their own.</p>



<p>What they lack in elite talent, they make up for in overwhelming depth. Both of their top two lines have players with at least 20 points, and every line drives play very well, giving their opponents no room to breathe no matter how big the lead. New addition Pierre-Luc Dubois has struggled, but once he gets going, that’s going to be another layer to an already tough group. They’ve also got a deep blueline despite losing Sean Walker and Sean Durzi last summer, and it’s about to get deeper with rookie defenseman Brandt Clarke joining the lineup. Like most teams here, goaltending is probably the biggest red flag, but Cam Talbot has shown this season that the team’s defensive systems will insulate their goaltenders very well.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="212"></div>



<p>_____</p>



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