Cue the “dust settling” metaphor as Day 1 of 2022 NHL free agency nears its end.

Not that we can say the dust has truly settled, of course. Many of the biggest fish in the UFA pond, including Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg, have yet to be hooked.

We have seen significant roster turnover across the NHL after Tuesday’s activity, however – numerous trades and 135 signings totalling almost $850 million in committed money thus far, per CapFriendly – so we have a fairly accurate picture of the league’s new power structure going forward.

Judging teams primarily by what they did in the past couple days, including some 11^th-hour re-signings, who are the biggest winners and losers after Day 1 of Free Agency?

Disclaimer: this list is subject to change once we know where remaining top-tier UFAs such as Kadri and Klingberg land.

The Winners

Ottawa Senators

The 2022 offseason belongs to Pierre Dorion thus far. The Senators GM already made a massive splash at the 2022 NHL Draft, making a blockbuster trade for sniper Alex DeBrincat, doing so by surrendering picks yet no prospects. Earlier this week, Dorion unloaded goaltender Matt Murray’s contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Then Dorion traded for veteran Minnesota Wild goaltender Cam Talbot, who is cheaper than Murray and has just a year left of term.

Then, the piece de resistance on Tuesday: a three-year contract for Claude Giroux, who already calls Ottawa home, at a $6.5 million AAV. Giroux, 34, forms an impressive projected top-six forward group alongside DeBrincat, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson. Giroux, who has more than 1,000 NHL games and 900-plus points on his resume, can play any forward position and remains an excellent play driver and faceoff dynamo. He’ll also bring badly needed leadership to a young core in Ottawa.

It remains to be seen if the Sens do more to fortify their D-corps, but whatever happens, they’ve significantly upgraded their overall talent – without dipping into their prospect pool, led by defenseman Jake Sanderson, a legitimate Calder Trophy threat in 2022-23. Ottawa has put the already-stacked Atlantic Division on notice.

Edmonton Oilers

Just 10 days ago, as part of our Daily Faceoff Roundtable, the panel members ruminated on which GMs were under the most pressure this offseason. I chose Ken Holland. The Oilers, I surmised, had so many question marks. Could they hold onto Evander Kane? Find a new No. 1 goaltender? Cross their fingers and hope for a Duncan Keith retirement and Mike Smith LTIR stash? Find a way to re-sign underrated blueliner Brett Kulak?

If you had told me then that the answer to all those questions would be “yes” within less than two weeks, I would’ve laughed. Hats off to Holland, who managed to lock up Kane, one of the sport’s top power forwards when emotionally committed, on a four-year contract at a reasonable AAV of $5.125 million. He produced as a true front-line scorer upon joining the Oilers last season, tallying 35 goals in 58 games between the regular season and playoffs, forging some real chemistry with Connor McDavid.

Holding on to him, not to mention Kulak, means the Oilers have strong odds of retaining the gains they made in 2021-22, when they upset the Calgary Flames in Round 2 of the playoffs and reached their first Western Conference Final since 2005-06. Securing a new No. 1 netminder in Jack Campbell makes things even more interesting. Campbell occasionally struggles with his confidence and has his detractors, but he was good more often than not as a Toronto Maple Leaf and there’s no shame in losing to Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy in consecutive postseasons. At worst, Campbell should be able to stop pucks as well as a 40-year-old Smith did this past season. The Oilers are positioned as arguably the top contender to win the Pacific Division next season given the massive pendulum swing of Gaudreau leaving the Calgary Flames.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Canes let Tony DeAngelo go last week, trading his rights to the Philadelphia Flyers, and watched Vincent Trocheck depart for the New York Rangers Tuesday. But Carolina exits Tuesday a better team than it was a week ago thanks to two trades.

In Brent Burns, acquired from the San Jose Sharks, the Canes get a right-shot puck-mover on ‘D’ who can more or less replicate what DeAngelo brought this past season. A motivated (if grizzled) Burns competing on the best team he’s played on in several seasons could be a surprisingly useful piece. Then came the shocking late-day “trade” which consisted of the Vegas Golden Knights handing first-line left winger Max Pacioretty and blueliner Dylan Coghlan to Carolina for future considerations. Yep, future considerations. In Pacioretty, the Canes get the goal-scoring, shot-peppering winger they’ve been missing, and they added a scrappy top-nine forward in Ondrej Kase Tuesday as well.

The Canes don’t appear ready to relinquish elite contender status in the Metro Division just yet.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Any team that gains Johnny Gaudreau, fresh off finishing fourth in the Hart Trophy vote, has to be considered a winner. Given his age and eye-popping numbers, he’s arguably the greatest forward ever to make it to market as a UFA, at least in the salary-cap era. It was an absolute jaw-dropper to see Gaudreau walk away from more money and a chance at a Stanley Cup in Calgary to…not even really go that close to home in the end? Columbus isn’t that close to South Jersey.

Regardless, the Blue Jackets and GM Jarmo Kekalainen are clear winners Tuesday for landing ‘Johnny Hockey’ for seven years at a $9.8 million AAV. Gaudreau has a chance to supplant Rick Nash as the best player in franchise history – and perhaps help Patrik Laine finally hit the 50-goal ceiling he’s always been believed to possess, assuming Columbus is able to lock him up as an RFA. There’s no question Gaudreau put himself much further away from winning a championship Tuesday, but from Columbus’ perspective, the arrow points up.

The Murky Middle

I wouldn’t qualify these teams as clear winners or losers, but they warranted some discussion because they made noteworthy moves Tuesday.

Detroit Red Wings

Whaaat? Placing the EXTREMELY BUSY Red Wings in the middling tier will likely incite some minor Twitter riots, but loud and busy doesn’t always equal good. Yes, the Wings did well to upgrade their goaltending with the Ville Husso acquisition last week. And, yes, UFA signee David Perron should do wonders for their power play and arrives on a fairly low-risk contract given it’s only for two years. But what about the major term handed out to Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot?

Copp, signed for five years at a $5.625 million AAV, deserved the deal he got. He’s an extremely versatile forward who can play center or the wing and be deployed in all situations. That said, it’s risky to bank on him to match the career-best production he showed with the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers this past season, playing with the likes of Mark Scheifele and Artemi Panarin. Detroit desperately needs a long-term complement for Dylan Larkin at center, but is that Copp? I’m skeptical. The Wings obviously had cap space to spare, but is this the kind of contract that might hold them back from chasing a superstar in a future offseason? Same goes for Chiarot, who will be 35 when his four-year deal at a $4.75 million cap hit expires. He has a propensity to take bad penalties and get caught out of position. He’s more of a bottom-pair blueliner who is earning, at worst, middle-pair money now.

I don’t hate what GM Steve Yzerman’s done. The Wings are undoubtedly going to be more competitive in 2022-23. But handing out a lot of term to mid-tier UFAs is a recipe for long-term mediocrity. At least he has an exciting nucleus to build around in Larkin, Calder Trophy winning D-man Moritz Seider, slick winger Lucas Raymond and many other promising youngsters in the system.

New York Rangers

Will seven years for Trocheck at a $5.625 million AAV age well? Maybe not, but that doesn’t make the Rangers losers on Day 1 of free agency. This is an Eastern Conference finalist team adding, in the present, a physical two-way center who rejoins coach Gerard Gallant, whom Trocheck calls one of his favorite coaches ever, having played with him for the Florida Panthers.

The Rangers also shored up their goaltending two-deep behind Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin by signing Jaroslav Halak and Louis Domingue. They did lose trade-deadline rental forwards Copp and Frank Vatrano, however, so perhaps the net result of their work Tuesday is roughly breaking even. That’s not a bad place to be so far this summer given Kaapo Kakko the only RFA left to sign. If he gets a bridge deal and leaves an extra few million in cap space, New York could still make another move to vault into the Winner tier.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Bolts and GM Julien BriseBois are sorcerers when it comes to keeping their team competitive year after year. They deserve plenty of credit for re-upping shutdown center Anthony Cirelli, do-it-all blueliner Mikhail Sergachev and bruising D-man Erik Cernak on eight-year deals Tuesday. But it’s also a tradition for Tampa to throw important players overboard due to its annual cap crunch. It already sacrificed Ryan McDonagh earlier this month in a trade to the Nashville Predators, and it informed coveted UFA left winger Ondrej Palat Tuesday that the cap space to retain him had simply run out.

We have no reason to doubt Tampa’s ability to keep icing competitive teams, but we certainly can’t say this team got better Tuesday despite the re-signings qualifying as wins. I view the Colorado Avalanche’s week similarly, by the way: nice job retaining the likes of Artturi Lehkonen, Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin et al, but we can’t say the defending champs are better when they still haven’t yet secured a second-line center replacement for Kadri.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Look. It would’ve been strange as hell to see Evgeni Malkin in a different NHL jersey. He also would’ve been tough to replace as Pittsburgh’s second-line center behind Sidney Crosby. But the Pens, who have lost five consecutive playoff series, just handed a four-year pact at a $6.1 million AAV to a 35-year-old who has reached the 70-game threshold once in his past 10 seasons. Malkin is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, one of the most underrated players ever in my mind and a Pittsburgh institution, but I have to at least ask the question: is re-signing Malkin, not to mention Kris Letang and Rickard Rakell, the way forward for a franchise mired in mediocrity over the past half decade?

The counterpoint would suggest that (a) Letang was the best defenseman on the market anyway; (b) the Pens would’ve made deeper playoff runs with better goaltending luck in the past two playoffs and should thus still contend in the Metro Division going forward; and (c) you simply keep the pedal to the medal until Crosby retires. I can understand that thinking. That’s why I’m not declaring the Pens winners or losers. I’m declaring them interesting.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Leaf Nation groaned when Toronto, walking away from pending UFA netminder Campbell, acquired fallen star Murray from the Ottawa Senators Monday, securing two draft picks with him in a retained-salary transaction that left Toronto paying $4.69 million of his cap hit for the next two seasons. It never made sense on paper that GM Kyle Dubas would be betting everything on his Soo Greyhound buddy Murray, who has been a shell of the puck-stopper who won consecutive Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017.

Things made a lot more sense Wednesday when Toronto picked up a high-upside tandem mate in former elite prospect Ilya Samsonov, whom the Washington Capitals decided not to qualify earlier this week. He’s only a couple seasons removed from looking like one of the most promising goalies in the game, and he’s just 25. There are worse reclamation projects to bet on. So maybe, just maybe, the Leafs did an adequate job replacing Campbell, a late-blooming top prospect himself, with a younger version of him.

The Losers

Calgary Flames

The Flames could’ve added pretty much any UFA forward on the market Tuesday and still would’ve had to land in the loser category. They’ve lost one of their greatest players in franchise history in Gaudreau, who already sits fifth on their all-time assists and points lists and surely would’ve risen to No. 1 in both categories had he accepted their reported eight-year, $84 million offer.

Alas, Gaudreau, whose wife is reportedly pregnant, decided it was too important to move closer to home (though not that close in the end). That reasoning is mostly understandable and there is thus no real blame to throw at Flames GM Brad Treliving. But in a pure hockey sense, removing a player who just finished second in NHL scoring with 115 points, the most by any Flame in more than 40 years, is a disaster.

Even scarier is the prospect of a domino effect that could disfigure Calgary from a true Stanley Cup contender to a team selling off its core in a fire sale. Will star RFA right winger Matthew Tkachuk refuse to sign a long-term deal now that his linemate Gaudreau is gone? Will Tkachuk demand a trade? The Flames have descended into the Upside Down.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers aren’t exactly following up a Presidents’ Trophy-winning season with gusto. After getting mercilessly swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 2 of the playoffs, they’ve lost three top-nine forwards already this offseason: Giroux and Mason Marchment as UFAs Tuesday and Anthony Duclair a few weeks back due to a serious Achilles injury that could cost him most or all of 2022-23.

Defenseman Chiarot left for the Detroit Red Wings, albeit he wasn’t very effective in a Panthers uniform as a trade deadline rental, while top shutdown defenseman MacKenzie Weegar’s name has been popping up in trade rumors rather than contract extension rumors. Gulp. The Panthers and GM Bill Zito obviously have to squirrel away as much money as possible for left winger Jonathan Huberdeau’s extension and are hurt by the Keith Yandle buyout, but, with all due respect to UFA additions Colin White and Nick Cousins, this team is decidedly weaker on paper that it was just a few months ago.

Vegas Golden Knights

I said it on The Daily Faceoff Show months ago: the Golden Knights treat their players like livestock and karma will eventually punish them for it. They’ve thrown one prospect and core player after another aside in pursuit of the next shiny toy, from Pacioretty (!) to Mark Stone to Alex Pietrangelo to Jack Eichel, and it’s finally landed them in salary-cap hell. They were forced to jettison Pacioretty Tuesday for salary-cap reasons, just as they had to move Evgenii Dadonov out earlier this offseason for the same purpose after botching a trade-deadline deal in March that would’ve sent him to a team on his no-trade list.

Let it sink in for a second that, in consecutive offseasons, the Golden Knights have unceremoniously dumped the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Marc-Andre Fleury, and their best goal-scorer for combined return of, um, nothing.

We’ll see if Vegas is attempting more than just cap compliance and trying to position itself for another star player hunt. But if their history tells us anything, it’ll require punting more futures to do so, which might dig their the franchise’s hole even deeper.

New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders

The offseason is still young. But when you’re supposedly the frontrunners to land the top UFA and miss out on chances to add other players, then end up losing that UFA to Columbus? Yeah, it was a tough day for the Devils and Islanders, who are left dreaming of what could have been with Johnny Hockey. The Devils at least snagged Palat, but he’s no Gaudreau.

____

POINTSBET CANADA IS LIVE IN ONTARIO

PointsBet Canada has officially launched in Ontario! Get more details right here!

The Winners

The Murky Middle

The Losers

POINTSBET CANADA IS LIVE IN ONTARIO

Recently by Matt Larkin