10 NHL players paid closest to their on-ice values in 2025-26

Oct 8, 2025

10 NHL players paid closest to their on-ice values in 2025-26

Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images

Perhaps one of the hardest things to pull off when signing players to contracts is locking them in at exactly their market values. Considering the peaks and valleys of NHL players’ careers, they often get signed during high or low points, so their contracts are disproportionate to their on-ice values.

But sometimes, teams get it just right. After looking at which contracts provide their respective teams with the best and worst values in the league, today I’m going to dive into the players signed to contracts closest to their on-ice values right now.

To do so, I’ll be using the contract rating system from my cap ranking series to compare every player’s market value to their on-ice value. For more information on how the contract rating system was put together, you can learn more here.

The ranking will be made up of the players whose contract ratings are the closest to 0, meaning where they rank in the league for their on-ice values is identical to where they rank for their contracts’ values. Any contracts with similar numerical ratings that are greater or less than 0 will be treated as ties regardless of if the ratings are positive or negative (ie. +1 and -1 will be ranked the same), while the tiebreakers will go to the players with the higher cap hits. All league-minimum contracts will not be considered for this list, mostly because we don’t want a list with players like Max McCormick or Trent Miner.

T-9. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins, & Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators

Cap Hit: $8.25 million (seven years remaining | four years remaining)
Contract Rating: -2 | +2

It’s only fitting everybody’s favorite goalie tandem find themselves in a tie with each other. Not even the tiebreaker could separate them, as their identical $8.25 cap hits kept them in a lock. It would have been even more fitting to have an identical player rating too, but while both goalies have the fifth-highest cap hit among goalies, Ullmark ranks third in my model while Swayman ranks seventh.

Even with Swayman’s struggles in 2024-25, this shouldn’t be a surprise that they’re both this high. Both goalies have been incredibly consistent and well-deserving of their current contracts. There may be some concerns about if Swayman can handle a starter’s load, but a bounce back should be expected this season, even on a Bruins squad that will likely be at the bottom of the standings. Ullmark hasn’t quite erased those concerns either, as injuries kept him to just 43 starts last season, but at least he’s the goaltender the Senators have needed since Craig Anderson.

8. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche

Cap Hit: $9 million (two years remaining)
Contract Rating: +2

Even at the time of Makar signing at his $9 million AAV in 2021 prior to his Norris Trophies, Conn Smythe Trophy and Stanley Cup, everyone knew Makar would easily live up to his deal. After only two seasons, he had all the makings of a superstar defenseman, and he’s been just that for the last four years, easily being worth the money.

The only reason Makar’s contract isn’t considered to be more of a steal is because his defensive game has petered off a bit. This means he is only considered to be the 10th-best defenseman, but his $9 million cap hit has still aged brilliantly. Makar has only two years left on his current contract, and after Kirill Kaprizov’s extension last week, the sky is the limit on what Makar gets paid on his next deal.

7. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Cap Hit: $12.5 million (one year remaining)
Contract Rating: +2

Oilers fans can finally breathe a sigh of relief, as not only has McDavid signed an extension to keep him around for at least two more seasons, but the contract comes in at the exact same cap hit as it had been for the past seven years. Right now, the market hasn’t passed his $12.5 million AAV by, as only Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon have higher cap hits this season, but as Kaprizov and possibly Kyle Connor have already shown us, the market is escalating quickly.

At the end of the day, McDavid will never have a negative-value contract, because as the best player in the league, no cap hit is too high for him. It may affect his team’s ability to build a strong squad around him, but he always sets the market, so it will never be a bad deal. Now that he’s re-upped at the same cap hit, he may actually provide a bit more value than normal and will give the Oilers the chance to add more talent to finally win a Stanley Cup.

6. Vitek Vanecek, Utah Mammoth

Cap Hit: $1.5 million (one year remaining)
Contract Rating: -1

Vanecek’s addition to this list may come as a surprise, but it’s important to remember that my player evaluation system for my contract rating model includes data from the past three seasons. In 2022-23, Vanecek provided the New Jersey Devils with the starting goaltending they desperately needed and posted a .911 save percentage and 7.79 5v5 goals saved above expected in 52 games. But in the past two seasons, he has an .888 SV% and -10.15 5v5 GSAx in 57 games with the Devils, San Jose Sharks and Florida Panthers.

Looking at the past three seasons as a whole, a $1.5 million AAV does make sense as a fair-value contract for Vanecek. While the past two seasons have seen him play like a league-minimum goaltender, his play in 2022-23 still raises that value a bit. That said, the two more recent seasons should probably be looked at as what he is at this point in his career.

5. Sean Monahan, Columbus Blue Jackets

Cap Hit: $5.5 million (four years remaining)
Contract Rating: -1

I’ll eat my words here. A little more than a year ago, I had Monahan’s five-year contract with a $5 million AAV as an honorable mention on my worst contracts of 2024 free agency list, citing his 59-point season in 2023-24 as an outlier. Considering his injury history and how much his game had fallen off since his first six seasons, it was hard to believe he was going to continue the success from that season.

Even if Monahan has still missed 85 games over the last three years, he’s managed to put up 133 points in 162 games. That production helps his value, as he still struggles defensively, meaning my model values him just shy of $5.5 million. And while this isn’t considered in my model, the impact he had on the Blue Jackets dressing room after everything they went through last season has also been worth the money. He’s 30 years old now, so four years is still a bit heavy term-wise, but he earned his salary last season.

4. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

Cap Hit: $11.6 million (seven years remaining)
Contract Rating: +1

I’m sure this one will go over well. It’s been well-documented how much Pettersson’s production has fallen off since signing his eight-year contract, as he has managed just 20 goals and 59 points in 84 games since the day he put pen to paper. That is far below the 39-goal, 102-point player he was in 2022-23, and based on how he’s played since signing the deal, he hasn’t provided the appropriate value for his contract.

But again, my model takes into account the larger picture, and even the low of the past 84 games hasn’t cancelled out how good Pettersson was for the 142 games prior to that. At his best, he’s a smooth skater with great hockey IQ and a lethal shot, and his defensive game is extremely underrated. That’s why he’s ranked seventh among forwards in my model, and if he can return to that form, he’ll be well worth his contract.

3. Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks

Cap Hit: $5 million (one year remaining)
Contract Rating: 0

While Pettersson sees his contract rate fairly despite recent inconsistencies, it is Demko’s inconsistencies over the past three seasons that have brought his on-ice value down to the level of his contract. Despite being a Vezina finalist in 2023-24, injuries and mediocre-to-poor play in 2022-23 and 2024-25 have left a lot more questions than answers about what kind of goaltender he can be in the long run.

The Canucks rewarded his highs with an $8.5 million AAV on his next deal, but the uncertainty about his durability and consistency meant he only got three years with it. If he can return to the level he was at in the 2023-24 season, he’ll be well worth that salary. But it’s not a guarantee, and the Canucks know that too, since they also locked up Kevin Lankinen to a five-year contract as insurance.

2. Adam Pelech, New York Islanders

Cap Hit: $5.75 million (four years remaining)
Contract Rating: 0

Lou Lamoriello signed many players to contracts which were worth too much money for too long during his tenure with the Islanders, but Adam Pelech was not one of those players. He was only just coming into his own when the Islanders went on their back-to-back runs to the Conference Finals, but his contract was a long-term bet on him that has paid off tenfold.

The Isles’ blueline at the time Pelech signed in 2021 had plenty of excellent defenders, including Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield and Noah Dobson, but all those defensemen have either left the team or have seen their games take significant steps back. Not Pelech, though. In fact, he’s gotten better, transforming his game to become one of the best defensive defensemen around with a league-best -0.243 5v5 regularized-adjusted plus-minus expected goals against per 60 minutes. His talents have gone to waste on a middling Islanders roster, but he hasn’t wasted a cent of his contract.

1. Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

Cap Hit: $10.5 million (four years remaining)
Contract Rating: 0

While McDavid and Makar are elite talents whose contracts are at equal value because of the growth of the salary cap and escalation of salaries in the league around them, Bouchard’s contract is only months old and comes in at equal value to his play. As one of just two players with new contracts on this list, it’s impressive Bouchard and the Oilers managed to get his deal at a price that is exactly what the defenseman is worth.

Bouchard’s high ranking may raise some eyebrows due to his reputation in the league, particularly defensively. While his defensive game isn’t elite, it’s fine enough to play in a top-pair role alongside Mattias Ekholm while being the primary puck mover for that unit. He’s fit seamlessly in that role with McDavid and Draisaitl and has become one of the most effective point producers from the blueline. Some may see the occasional lazy backcheck or reckless zone exit as a sign he’s not worth $10.5 million a year, but on the contrary: he is worth exactly $10.5 million a year.

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