As the NHL calendar shifts to September and training camp gets closer to starting, it means the offseason is coming to an end and most of the roster movement is out of the way (more on that in a minute).
That means it’s time to officially kick off this season’s salary cap rankings at Daily Faceoff, in which we take a look at all the different aspects of managing and excelling in the salary cap era and rank teams based on how well they do. That’s all done through a somewhat complex process and system, which I have outlined in a summary of its own for your convenience.
We’ve already examined the teams ranked 32nd to 25th, 24th to 17th & 16th to 9th. So this week, we will look at the eight best teams at managing their salary cap. Consistency appears to be key with the final quarter of this list, because four of the eight teams that made it have been in the top eight for all three editions of the cap rankings at Daily Faceoff, with three others making it in two of the three. That’s incredibly impressive, considering how a bad contract or two can easily mess up a team’s salary cap picture.
And as I mentioned last week, this list has been locked as of the first edition of the rankings. There hasn’t been as much of a changing tide for restricted free agent signings as I initially believed, so even if I had decided to update the list on the go, it wouldn’t have made much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.
8. Vegas Golden Knights (2023: 7th)
Good Contract Percentage: 8th (2023: 18th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-11th (2023: 9th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-24th (2023: 28th)
Dead Cap Space: t-1st (2023: 1st)
Quality of Core: t-16th (2023: 10th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-10th (2023: 5th)
I spoke about teams that have consistently been the top eight of this list, and the Golden Knights are one of those teams, having finished 6th, 7th and now 8th. Maybe there’s some concern for a slow decline, but I’d certainly be more optimistic about staying at the top this long. It should come as no surprise either with Vegas being one of the most ruthless teams in the league and constantly moving on from situations that would make their salary cap situation work, even when it’s a longtime player for the team. Marc-Andre Fleury, Max Pacioretty, Reilly Smith, and this year Jonathan Marchessault, there’s not a lot left of the original Golden Knights team, but that’s why Vegas is as good as they are.
What’s most impressive is that the Golden Knights have managed to accumulate no dead cap space despite being so willing to move on from bad contracts. You would think that they’d have at least retained salary or bought out a deal, but no. In fact, I can’t recall them ever buying out a player. They also rank in the top ten for good contract percentage, another result of being ruthless with their players, and while it doesn’t love the new contract to Ilya Samsonov or taking on Tomas Hertl, they’ve also seen a lot of their bad deals from the past either expire or see the players signed to them improve to make it good. If there is one concern about the future of Vegas’ cutthroat tendencies, it’s that they do have a lot of players on NTC/NMCs. It hasn’t slowed them down yet, but if there’s one thing that might get in the way of them moving on from a player that has made a home in Vegas, it’s those pesky clauses.
7. Calgary Flames (2023: 2nd)
Good Contract Percentage: t-3rd (2023: 5th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-18th (2023: 9th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-14th (2023: 20th)
Dead Cap Space: 17th (2023: 1st)
Quality of Core: t-16th (2023: 3rd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 2nd (2023: 11th)
The Flames are another team that have cracked the top eight in all three editions of the salary cap rankings at Daily Faceoff, and that might be surprising considering that they’re also operating with one of the worst contracts in the league, that being the $10.5 million cap hit of Jonathan Huberdeau. Admittedly, it is very easy to have a good salary cap structure when you’ve basically reset your cap sheet in the wake of a rebuild and aren’t spending a lot of money, but Calgary is doing a lot more work than that to get the job done.
There is one area where I don’t necessarily agree with my model, and that’s with the Flames’ 2nd-place ranking in cap space to skill differential. The reason they’re so high isn’t just because of the fact that they have the third-lowest cap hit, but also because the model really likes their forward group and rates them as a playoff bubble team overall. I think they’ll be one of the teams competing for the first overall pick, so that will obviously help their ranking.
But more impressive is their good contract percentage outside of the disastrous Huberdeau one. The only other contracts that my model rates as bad belong to Kevin Rooney, Jake Bean and Dan Vladar, who barely eclipse $5 million combined, and only Bean’s contract goes beyond this season. That’s a great blank slate to have for a rebuilding team, especially when you have to work around Huberdeau’s contract.
6. Nashville Predators (2023: 4th)
Good Contract Percentage: 5th (2023: 11th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-18th (2023: 6th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 1st (2023: 3rd)
Dead Cap Space: 31st (2023: 31st)
Quality of Core: 2nd (2023: 1st)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-8th (2023: 8th)
The Predators easily made the biggest splash on the free agent market, nabbing two of the better goal scorers available in Steven Stamkos and Marchessault, while also adding to their blueline by signing Brady Skjei. My model only dislikes the Stamkos contract for the time being, but it continues to signal the change under Barry Trotz in Nashville. That change has come at a cost sometimes, as shown by the fact that they have the second-most dead cap space and are the only team giving the Minnesota Wild a run for their money in that regard, but as shown by the Preds’ cap space to skill differential, they know how to spend efficiently around it to field a competitive team.
Nashville’s biggest advantage is that they are the most diligent at giving players NTC/NMCs. In fact, they only have two on their cap sheet right now: Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi. I’d say those are two players worthy of those kinds of clauses.
Beyond that, they also only have players worthy of term locked up to four or more years, a list that basically consists of their three best players in Forsberg, Josi and Juuse Saros, and their three big free agent signings in Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei. The other place they excel at is handing out good contracts, with only five on the roster in total. I wouldn’t call this Preds team a Cup contender just yet, but they seem to be heading in the right direction to be there soon. Then again, this isn’t the first time Daily Faceoff has undershot their prediction of Nashville going into the season.
5. New Jersey Devils (2023: 6th)
Good Contract Percentage: 11th (2023: 8th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-11th (2023: 19th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-14th (2023: 3rd)
Dead Cap Space: 16th (2023: 23rd)
Quality of Core: t-8th (2023: 6th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 3rd (2023: 12th)
The Devils are another one of the teams that have found themselves in the top eight of the cap rankings in all three seasons, and outside of the Flames, they might be the most surprising team to do so. The first instance was before their incredible 2022-23 campaign that saw them make the playoffs and even win a round with my model being quite high on the team that year, and then it rode that wave in 2023 only to be proven wrong by goaltending. Well, now the Devils have forked over some money to improve their defense and their goaltending, and the model still seems to really like their roster, and believes those moves to be the right choice.
The Devils are the only team to make the top five with only two categories in the top 10, but they find themselves this high due to having every category sit in the top half of the league. I mentioned how they spent a decent amount of money on defense and goaltending, something that could have very easily hurt their roster and their cap space, but they find themselves third in the league in that regard, as they still have $6 million in cap space (albeit with Dawson Mercer still unsigned) and the fifth-best roster according to my model.
They also grade out well for their quality of core even with Nico Hischier now with three years left on his deal, as it’s still in good hands with Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler, and new addition Brett Pesce. Of course, we saw last season how a seemingly good roster on paper can fall apart, so here’s to hoping that the on-ice product is as good as their off-ice financial efficiency.
4. Anaheim Ducks (2023: 25th)
Good Contract Percentage: 32nd (2023: 32nd)
Quality Cheap Deals: 2nd (2023: 30th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-5th (2023: 9th)
Dead Cap Space: t-1st (2023: 1st)
Quality of Core: t-5th (2023: 28th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-14th (2023: 12th)
The Ducks see the biggest rise from last year’s list, going from the bottom quarter of the rankings to the top in this year’s edition. It’s quite impressive that they’ve made this jump, especially when their good contract percentage is still dead last in the league, but nearly every other category is in the top ten, and the only other one that isn’t, their cap space to skill differential, could have been higher with a better roster, but when they’re spending the second-fewest on their roster, that’s the result you’re going to get.
Where the Ducks saw significant improvement on their team is in the quality of their core, and their quality cheap deals. Their quality of core improves not because of who has been added to that group, but who’s been lost. In fact, Troy Terry is the only player signed for longer than three seasons on the team, as Alex Killorn, Ryan Strome and John Gibson all leave that group and stop weighing it down.
Meanwhile, with the Ducks seeing more of their top prospects like Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov get ice time, they have a surplus of cheap contracts to use this year. Add in the fact that they have no dead cap space and are somewhat diligent with handing out NTC/NMCs, and you have mostly well-rounded salary cap system, and right as they’re looking to take the next step and be a consistent playoff contender. Now they just need to start handing out better contracts to their players.
3. Carolina Hurricanes (2023: 9th)
Good Contract Percentage: 1st (2023: 1st)
Quality Cheap Deals: 30th (2023: 19th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-14th (2023: 20th)
Dead Cap Space: t-1st (2023: 12th)
Quality of Core: 4th (2023: 22nd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 1st (2023: 2nd)
The Hurricanes were one of the more surprising teams to make a general manager change, as Don Waddell departed after contract negotiations went south. In his place is Eric Tulsky, who comes from more of a data-heavy background in hockey, and it’s shown so far in the Canes’ cap sheet, as they’ve improved from 9th to 3rd this year. On top of that, not only are they the only team to be first in more than one category, they’re actually first in three.
Not all of that is because of Tulsky’s work, as their good contract percentage was in first last season, and their cap space to skill differential was in second last year. Heck, even their dead cap space wasn’t on him, but more because of the fact that they had no performance bonus overages this year. Where Tulsky did help the Canes improvement was with their quality of core, as while Sebastian Aho’s addition is due to an extension he signed with Waddell, Seth Jarvis, William Carrier, Jaccob Slavin and Sean Walker are all there because of contracts that they signed with Tulsky to boost it up to 4th.
Tulsky hasn’t been quite as efficient with quality cheap deals, but part of that is also due to some players from last season like Jarvis, Jack Drury and Jalen Chatfield graduating to contracts above $1 million. Needless to say, the Canes look like they will still be in good hands under Tulsky.
2. Florida Panthers (2023: 1st)
Good Contract Percentage: t-3rd (2023: 2nd)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-3rd (2023: 16th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-5th (2023: 5th)
Dead Cap Space: 15th (2023: 17th)
Quality of Core: t-8th (2023: 3rd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-16th (2023: 1st)
The Panthers are the final of the four teams to make the top eight in all three years, but unlike the other three, they’ve been even more consistent as the only team to finish in the top five every year, highlighted by a first place finish last season, only to be usurped and put in second this year. Regardless, that’s incredible consistency across three seasons, especially as they’ve seen a lot of moving pieces come in and out the door to make the salary cap space work, and they’ve also handed out some pricey extensions to some star players. For the record, my model likes the $8.625 cap hit given to Sam Reinhart, even if he won’t score 57 goals again in his career.
In fact, it only dislikes five contracts on the Panthers in total, with it not quite sold on Anton Lundell, definitely not sold on Dmitry Kulikov and Niko Mikkola, and of course the two contracts given to goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight, no matter how good the former has been in the playoffs the last two years. The model also really likes how many quality cheap deals Florida has this season (including Rasmus Asplund, Adam & Jesper Boqvist and Nate Schmidt), finds them generally consistent at identifying the right players to lock up long term (Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling and Reinhart certainly prop that up, even if it also includes Lundell and Kulikov), and they’re also quite diligent with handing out NTC/NMCs (which is particularly impressive considering that no-tax states usually need to use that to convince players to take a discount). My model isn’t nearly as sold on Florida being a roster worth spending over the cap for, and they do still have Keith Yandle’s buyout on the books, but otherwise, their cap management has the consistency of a team that’s spent three straight years in the top five – and has two Stanley Cup Finals to show for it thus far.
1. Colorado Avalanche (2023: 10th)
Good Contract Percentage: 2nd (2023: 11th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-3rd (2023: 30th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-20th (2023: 9th)
Dead Cap Space: t-1st (2023: 14th)
Quality of Core: 3rd (2023: 8th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-6th (2023: 6th)
When I first did this list for Daily Faceoff in 2022, the Avalanche found themselves at the top of the list, fresh off a Stanley Cup win and seemingly poised for consistent contention. In 2023, they had fallen to 10th, largely because some bonus overages weighed down their dead cap space, as well as a lack of quality cheap deals that burned them later on in the season when they lacked the depth to counter the Dallas Stars. And now, they find themselves fairing much better in terms of their cheap deals and dead cap space, with both now ranking top three in the league. In fact, the Avs have four categories that finished in the top three, the only team in the league to do so, along with another one in sixth.
With no bonus overages this year, the Avs’ dead cap space isn’t a problem in the slightest, while their quality cheap deals saw significant improvement due to both the emergence of younger players like Justus Annunen, cheap gambles on players yet to breakout like Erik Brannstrom, or even cheaper veterans like Joel Kiviranta or Calvin De Haan. Along with that, Colorado sits second in good contract percentage, largely thanks to having only two “bad” contracts on the team, and they’re third in quality of core that is heavily carried by Nathan MacKinnon and Devon Toews, and not weighed down too much by Miles Wood. And even though the Avs are somewhat close to the salary cap in terms of their spending, they also have the second-best roster according to my model, so that favors them in cap space to skill differential. In the two years prior of doing this list, the number one spot has either gone to the defending Stanley Cup champion (the Avs in 2022), or to the team that went on to win it that season (the Panthers in 2023). The Avs aren’t the defending champion, so perhaps that bodes well to them winning it this season.