Take a moment and think of the NHL’s best goaltenders.
You know, the ones whose teams pencil their guy in for 55 starts every year. Durable. Consistent. A true Number One. The goalies whose coaches rarely think about the position.
How many names came to mind?
Three? Five, maybe? Seven, if you were generous? But then you remembered those ugly few months of sketchy play or that lingering injury that still panics the fan base.
Goaltenders have never been better than right now. Bigger. Faster. More technically sound. More explosive. Stellar at handling the puck. Yet, despite the size and skill of the league’s masked men, few NHL teams today boast consistently reliable goaltending. And then there’s the Winnipeg Jets.
The NHL’s Best Goaltenders
“Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you…
‘Joltin Joe’ has left and gone away.”
— Simon & Garfunkel, ‘Mrs. Robinson’
The NHL’s biggest stars are typically its top scorers. Goals are always in style. But hockey’s steadiest goalies hold a unique and revered place in the game’s hierarchy. Plante, Sawchuk, and Hall in the Original Six. Dryden, Esposito, and Parent in the post-expansion world. Smith and Fuhr of the 1980s dynasties. Roy, Brodeur, and Hasek at the turn of the century. Luongo and Lundqvist in the post-lockout era.
Whom can you count on in the NHL today?
It’s hard to appreciate greatness in your own time. League-wide save percentage has declined. Trends are moving toward splitting the starter’s crease. There’s been an uptick in scoring the last decade. It’s certainly possible that this won’t be remembered as a golden era for the position.
The chart below shows all goaltenders who meet two modest criteria over the last six seasons: 1. Played 100 games; and 2. Saved 10 or more goals above expected.
Goals saved above expected (GSAx) measures exactly what it sounds like. It counts how many goals a goaltender saves (or allows) compared to how many goals are expected to be scored on the specific shots they face. A GSAx of zero equates to average performance. We’re using MoneyPuck.com‘s version, which factors each shot’s distance from the net, its angle, type, and pre-shot activity.
It’s a short list. After all, only so many goaltenders can be above average.
Yes, you’re reading that right. Hellebuyck has saved 161 goals above expected over the last six seasons. Just look at the ebbs and flows of his fellow goalie union members. Hellebuyck hasn’t had a season with fewer than 20 goals saved above expected in six years. When we compare his play against his peers’, a seismic gap emerges. Runner-up Igor Shesterkin is a shocking 62 goals behind the Jets’ workhorse.
The Inconsistent Generation
“People try to put us down (talkin’ ’bout my generation)
Just because we get around (talkin’ ’bout my generation)
Things they do look awful cold (talkin’ ’bout my generation)
… This is my generation.”
— The Who, ‘My Generation’
The 31-year-old Hellebuyck’s play has ensured many unspectacular Winnipeg rosters have been competitive. But it’s not just his GSAx total that sizzles. Hellebuyck’s brilliance is amplified by the fact he’s had no down years or missed any notable stretch of time with injury. In the last six seasons, he’s played in 78% of Jets’ games. It’s an absurd figure in an NHL where #1 goaltenders average 49 appearances, or roughly 60% of the schedule.
How does the current generation compare to Hellebuyck in providing consistently elite play?
Igor Shesterkin: When he’s in the zone, Shesterkin is a weapon. A cheat code. A right bower in euchre. He’s earned Vezina votes the last three seasons, winning in 2021-22, and capped each with excellent post-season play. Yet, Rangers fan can tell you there are times where Shesterkin gets lost and needs his modem reset. His 3-11-0 stretch earlier this season was hardly all on his shoulders, but it nearly sunk the Rangers.
Andrei Vasilevskiy: The Big Cat could retire today at 30 and rightfully earn serious Hall of Fame consideration. He’s led the Lightning to three Cup Finals, winning two, including a Conn Smythe Trophy. Yet, it’s certainly possible his last great season was at 28. Since his back operation, Vasilevskiy 2.0 has not looked like the original. Far from concerning, but also far from dominant.
Juuse Saros: Saros led the NHL in appearances the past three seasons — and it’s starting to show. He’s been Hellebuyck Lite — not just in stature but in carrying flawed teams that outpunch their weight. With a GSAx below average last season (-6) and a similar pace this season (-3), it’s possible Juice has been oversqueezed.
Beyond Hellebuyck’s three steadiest contemporaries is the field…
Sergei Bobrovsky? Bob’s claim to fame is dominant runs checkered with inconsistency — his career is a split of great, average, and mediocre seasons… Linus Ullmark? Ilya Sorokin? Logan Thompson? GSAx tells us each has had only one special season… Frederik Andersen? Thatcher Demko? Often good when they play, but staying in the lineup remains elusive… Darcy Kuemper? Jacob Markstrom? Fine goaltending specimens, but they haven’t combined to play on nine franchises because of their reliability… Jordan Binnington? He’s not even on the above list, only preventing goals near league-average… Jeremy Swayman? His first season as a true #1 has been rocky… Jake Oettinger? Adin Hill? Neither’s had a season with 10 GSAx yet.
Vezina Voting
“Oh, you’re simply the best
Better than all the rest
Better than anyone
Anyone I’ve ever met.”
— Tina Tuner, ‘Simply The Best’
If the season ended today, Hellebuyck would almost certainly get all 32 first-place Vezina votes from the league’s general managers. Daily Faceoff‘s mid-season vote was a sweep. His season could end tomorrow and he’d still be a strong candidate after 40 starts.
But prepare to have your mind blown when it comes to Hellebuyck’s career share of the Vezina. Now, NHL GMs are hardly the shrewdest voters — they’ve famously gushed over wins and game totals in their habits. But the Vezina vote plays a meaningful role in how goalies are perceived and form a key part of their legacy.
Vezina Trophy Shares, Since 1981-82
| Goaltender | Vezina Shares | Wins | Finalist | |
| 1 | Martin Brodeur | 5.4 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Dominik Hasek | 4.8 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Patrick Roy | 4.6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Connor Hellebuyck* | 2.6 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Ed Belfour | 2.5 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Pekka Rinne | 2.1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Andrei Vasilevskiy* | 2.0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Tom Barrasso | 2.0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Sergei Bobrovsky* | 2.0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Henrik Lundqvist | 1.9 | 1 | 5 |
* Active
The Vezina Trophy was first voted on in 1981-82. Previously, it was awarded to the goaltender(s) on the team with the fewest goals allowed. In 43 years of voting, Hellebuyck is already fourth in Vezina share. Behind only Brodeur, Hasek, and Roy. Name a better goalie trio.
Let’s assume Hellebuyck gets 90% of the voting points this year. He’d move up to 3.5 shares, distancing himself from the pack and all but assuring he’ll retire #4 in award shares. It would also put him a couple of great seasons from Patrick Roy territory. A third Vezina would usurp two-time winners Belfour, Bobrovsky, and Tim Thomas in the voting era. He’d be looking up at only Hasek (six) and Brodeur (four), who won their last Vezinas at 36 and 35 years old, respectively.
With or Without Hellebuyck
“Sleight of hand and twist of fate
On a bed of nails she makes me wait
And I’ll wait without you
With or without you.”
— U2, ‘With or Without You’
While GM Kevin Cheveldayoff may not listen to Bono’s heartfelt anthem when Hellebuyck dons a baseball cap every fourth game, he should lower his expectations at this point.
Winnipeg Jets Results, Since 2016-17*
| Games | Wins | Losses | OTL | Pts % | Pts Pace | |
| Totals | 669 | 376 | 239 | 54 | .602 | 99 |
| Hellebuyck Decisions | 503 | 292 | 169 | 42 | .622 | 102 |
| Without Hellebuyck | 166 | 84 | 70 | 12 | .542 | 89 |
* Through January 25, 2025
In the nine seasons Hellebuyck has been their starter, the Jets are two different franchises. Winnipeg morphs from a 102-point outfit with him into an 89-point team without him. That’s the difference between Cup contender and being outside the playoff picture. And the Jets’ haven’t employed duds in the role — longtime understudy Laurent Brossoit was excellent for years. While backups often get the second half of back-to-backs, they’re regularly slotted against bottom feeders where possible.
Closing Thoughts
When you peel back the layers, there’s no shortage of NHL goaltending talent. It’s an exceptional group in the blue paint right now. But how many teams feel great about their goaltending for a month straight? Or a full season? Hellebuyck is approaching a decade of outstanding and dependable play.
He has work to do when it counts most — the playoffs. While Hellebuyck’s overall postseason body of work is more average than abysmal, he hasn’t taken the Jets on his back in the spring since 2018. Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin have consistently elevated their games in the post-season. Bobrovsky struggled for years, but selectively found a gear to make two Cup Finals, winning one, in his mid-30s. Hellebuyck is signed through 2031 in Winnipeg, and playoff success is surely atop his hockey bucket list.
Amidst a Jets’ season oozing good vibes, Hellebuyck’s performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off and in the postseason will be worth watching. But regardless of his team success or failure ahead, Hellebuyck is this era’s most consistently dominant goalie. He’s the rarest of finds in the NHL’s goaltending collection. One of one.
Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from MoneyPuck.com, Hockey-Reference, NHL.com
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