Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings.
Senators vs. Red Wings Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -120
- Detroit Red Wings Moneyline: +100
- Puck Line: Senators -1.5 (+200), Red Wings +1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Senators (19-19 SU, 15-23 ATS, 13-19-6 O/U)
Ottawa had won seven of eight games before embarking on its eight-game road trip and carried that momentum West, winning its first three games. However, the Senators have since dropped four of five as they head into their final road game before a brief return home. Notably, the Senators’ slump coincides with the injury to starting goaltender Linus Ullmark.
Ullmark is 12-7-2 on the season with a .915 save percentage and a 2.38 goals-against average. Before his injury, he had been dominant, winning seven straight games with a .967 sv% and a 0.99 GAA. However, he left the Dec. 22 game against Edmonton after the first period and has missed the last four games. His return timeline remains uncertain.
In the meantime, Anton Forsberg and Leevi Merilainen will share the starting duties, though it’s unclear who will start Tuesday in Detroit. Forsberg is 3-0 with a .951 sv% and a 1.33 GAA against the Red Wings in his career, but he’s been struggling this season. He has just four wins in 12 appearances, and aside from two shutouts earlier in the season, he’s allowed three or more goals in every other game.
The 32-year-old is 2-6 since the start of November, including three straight losses, and has been limited by injuries, starting just two games since Dec. 8. Merilainen, on the other hand, has only six NHL games to his name, leaving the Senators without a reliable option in net.
While the Senators boast serious talent up front with players like Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson, they aren’t an offensive powerhouse. Ottawa ranks 20th in goals per 60 minutes on the season but has slipped to 28th in that category since the start of November. In fact, Ottawa has only scored more than three goals five times in its last 29 games dating back to Nov. 1.
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Handicapping the Red Wings (17-22 SU, 23-16 ATS, 19-18-2 O/U)
Detroit has won four games in a row for the first time this season, with victories over a varied mix of opponents: the Capitals, Penguins, Blue Jackets, and Jets. However, the Red Wings had managed just six wins in their previous 20 games, including two losing streaks of four games or more dating back to Nov. 29.
The Red Wings lost their only meeting against the Senators this season, falling 2-1 in Ottawa on Dec. 5. Detroit is 2-8 straight-up in the past 10 meetings against Ottawa. Cam Talbot, however, has a solid career record versus the Senators, going 7-4 with a 2.52 GAA and a .914 sv% in 11 games. Notably, he has yet to face Ottawa as a member of the Red Wings. While Talbot has been average this season, he could provide Detroit with an edge in goal—possibly their only advantage in this matchup.
The Senators will be well-rested, coming off a three-day break, though the Red Wings will have had two days off themselves. Even so, the Senators’ one-day rest advantage is significant. Home teams win 61.3% of games with more rest than their opponents, compared to just 45.3% when the road team is rested and the home team is tired.
According to Evolving Hockey, Detroit ranks among the bottom five teams in five-on-five expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage. They’ve also scored the second-fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes. Additionally, they rank 31st in shots per 60 minutes, and are 25th in goals against across all situations.
Best bet for Senators vs. Red Wings
- Josh Norris Over 0.5 Points (+110) at Sports Interaction
Josh Norris ranks fifth on the Senators in points with 22 and second in goals with 14, trailing only Tkachuk. A native of Oxford, Michigan, just 35 miles north of Detroit, Norris is sure to have plenty of family and friends in attendance. Though he has only three points in his last 10 games, the 25-year-old has recorded at least one point in six of nine career games against the Red Wings, totaling seven goals and three assists. At +110 odds, Norris is a good bet to score at least one point, but bettors should always shop around for the best odds.