Rising Up: Whose Production Surges in the Playoffs?

May 17, 2024

Leon Draisaitl for FanDuel promo & DraftKings promo 6.13

Credit: May 10, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) during a stop in play against the Vancouver Canucks during the first period in game two of the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Big game player. Ice in the veins. Loves the pressure. Clutch.

Call them whatever you like, some athletes consistently rise to the occasion when the games matter most. Setting reputations aside, who are the league’s true post-season standouts by the numbers?

We’re now familiar with era adjusted playoff stats — post-season performance scaled to the NHL’s annual playoff scoring rates. Hockey fans know that: 1. Scoring levels shift every year; and 2. Goals are typically harder to come by in the spring when you eliminate the weakest teams. Era adjusted playoff stats allow us to cut through this noise and fairly measure playoff productivity.

Last week, we identified playoff underperformers, uncovering many decorated and talented players with a surprising decline in post-season output. This week, it’s positive vibes only. We’re searching for elite players who find an even higher gear in the playoffs.

The Trend

Note: All regular season and playoff statistics are through June 2023.

The chart below plots every forward with 40 or more career playoff games since expansion. The dotted black line cutting across the middle represents identical point production in the regular season and playoffs. After adjusting for scoring environment, Connor McDavid, for example, scores 1.54 points per game in the season and 1.55 points-per-game in the playoffs. His output is essentially the same. As a result, McDavid sits right on the line.

Forwards who are more productive in the playoffs sit above the line (Mikko Rantanen), and those more productive in the regular season are below it (Artemi Panarin).

But what you likely notice is that most forwards hang pretty close to the line.

What does this tell us?

Despite the polarizing narratives casting everyone as either clutch or chokers, most players perform as we expect regardless of the time of year. Sure, we get outliers. But the visual reveals that playoff output strongly resembles regular season output with proper context.

Great players often seem to thrive in key moments because — wait for it — they’re great players. In November. In February. Or in May. They rightfully get a lot of ice time. They play on the power play. They play in close games. They play late in games when a goal is needed.

We’re presenting the stars that separate themselves in the playoffs from their already high standards.

Enjoy.

Forwards 📈

Minimum 0.7 era adjusted points per game in regular season career

Active Forwards

Minimum 45 career playoff games

# 8. Jake Guentzel (+15%)
# 7. Nazem Kadri (+16%)
# 6. Ryan O’Reilly (+18%)

The list begins with three fearless forwards, each with one Cup ring in their safe. After scoring 13 goals as a rookie in Pittsburgh’s 2017 title defense, Guentzel continued to thrive as Sidney Crosby’s go-to winger. His run as a rental in Carolina has now ended after 9 points in 11 games.

As for Kadri, his playoff history over a five-year period was… something else:

2018, Toronto: four-game suspension
2019, Toronto: five-game suspension
2020, Colorado: 18 points in 15 games
2021, Colorado: eight-game suspension
2022, Colorado: 15 points in 16 games, wins the Stanley Cup

Of course, like most Maple Leafs in the last 57 years, Kadri was unimpressive in the playoffs in blue and white. But as required in NHL by-laws, he respected the Toronto Curse and thrived offensively upon leaving.

At #6, O’Reilly, the 2019 Smythe winner, a.k.a. ‘The Factor,’ cranks up his output 18% in the playoffs.

# 5. Nathan MacKinnon (+21%)
# 4. Gabriel Landeskog (+21%)
# 3. Mikko Rantanen (+21%)

Whoa. Three long-time Avalanche core members each reach another stratosphere. These are three very different types of players with varying skill sets and ceilings, yet each has been exceptional in Colorado’s current dangerous playoff window. Perhaps most impressively, MacKinnon leaps from a career adjusted 91-point pace to a 110-point pace in the post-season. What a player.

# 2. Logan Couture (+22%)

Both Couture and our #1 playoff overperformer are without a Stanley Cup. At age 34, after playing just six games this year, and having the umm, pleasure, of being the Sharks’ captain, it’s not looking good. In 2016, Couture led the playoffs in assists (20) and points (30), but lost to the Penguins in the finals. In 2019, Couture led the playoffs in goals (14) in only three rounds. It reinforces that championships are won as a team. Being outstanding in the playoffs doesn’t guarantee anything. Just ask Logan.

# 1. Leon Draisaitl (+37%)

One man stands alone at the top. First, to clap back at the critics, yes, Draisaitl has often been stapled to McDavid in the playoffs. Yes, he’s a go-to shooter on an all-time great power play. Yes, he’s at the peak of his powers and his playoff per-game rates will decline courtesy of Father Time. And yes, all but four of his 59 career playoff games have been in the first two rounds. But check out his company…

Incredibly, at 1.63 adjusted points per game, Draisaitl trails only Wayne Frickin’ Gretzky (1.71) since expansion. Mario Lemieux (1.59) is looking up at him. He leads McDavid by eight goals and five points in the same number of playoffs games. The boost the German center finds in the post-season is sublime. He goes from a career adjusted 98-point pace to a torrid 134-point pace. Even as the Oilers’ depth and goaltending send chills of another potential lost year, he’s got 21 points through 10 games. What more can this guy do?

Forwards Since Expansion

Minimum 60 career playoff games

A lot of the most celebrated playoff performers still thrive under an era adjusted lens.

Shoutout to the greatest overachieving playoff forward ever, Daniel Briere. The current Flyers’ GM played in five conference finals, lost in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals despite leading the playoffs in points (30), tied for the 2012 playoff goal lead (8) in just two rounds(!), yet never took home the biggest prize. Six-time Cup winner and ESPN analyst Mark Messier‘s storied credentials are legit — a 24% jump in the post-season. You heard it here, kids — crushing Lay’s Chips in a leather jacket brings playoff success.

The top 25 is peppered with nine Hall of Famers. Some sympathy goes out to four of them — Gilbert Perreault, Darryl Sittler, Bernie Federko, and Jarome Iginla — each of whom retired without a Cup despite an 11% increase in playoff production.

Defensemen 📈

Minimum 0.4 era adjusted points per game in regular season career

Active Defensemen

Minimum 45 career playoff games

If karma has any influence on playoff puck luck, Lady Byng winner Jaccob Slavin as the #1 active overperforming blueliner and Jacob Trouba as last week’s #1 underperformer is poetic. But it’s the Rangers who advanced last night. Each of the top five are sans Cup, however, though Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen has his eyes set on his first real soon. Morgan Rielly at #2 on the list is fascinating — he’s chipped in offensively his entire gut-wrenching playoff career.

Defensemen Since Expansion

Minimum 60 career playoff games

Half of the top 20 overperforming defensemen since expansion have never lifted the Cup. Jason Woolley, a finalist with Florida (1996) and Buffalo (1999) is a shocker at #1. The 1994 Smythe winner, Brian Leetch, scoring at an era adjusted 91-point pace from the blueline is otherworldly. Force of nature Chris Pronger remarkably led three different teams to the finals in his 30s — Edmonton, Anaheim, and Philadelphia. Lastly, three-time Cup winners in Chicago, Duncan Keith (+20%) and Brent Seabrook (+19%) found another offensive gear in the spring.

Notables

Fernando Pisani (+63%) — his 33 playoff games were below the cutoff
Max Talbot (+58%) — his 0.32 career adjusted points-per-game were below the cutoff
Wayne Gretzky (+7%)
Cale Makar (+7%)
Jonathan Toews (+6%)
Justin ‘Mr. Game 7’ Williams (+2%)
Bobby Orr (No change)
Steve Yzerman (-2%)
Mario Lemieux (-5%)
Patrick Kane (-6%)
Sidney Crosby (-7%)
Jaromir Jagr (-7%)
Alex Ovechkin (-11%)

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Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com, NHL.com